This Brutal Tweet From an Anti-Trump Operative Sums Up the Latest Slate of Polls for Dems

History shows that the party in power usually loses seats in the midterms. It’s just how things tend to happen. It’s the cyclical balancing act. The only recent exceptions to this pattern were the 2002 midterms, when Bush and the GOP gained seats, and the 1998 midterms, when Bill Clinton also experienced no loss. After that, you have to go back to 1934.

The situation has changed, but not least because the latest polls show a significant drop in Democrats' disapproval of Trump. No, I’m serious. In 2018, it was 90 percent. Now, it’s only 69 percent. And despite what Democrats hoped would be a strong advantage in the generic ballot, they just can’t pull it off right now. Republicans are either tied with Democrats or leading by three to four points. That’s not enough to flip the House.

Washington Post/Ipsos poll | 7/9-7/13 RV

Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 48%
🟥Republican 45%
—
Which political party do you agree with more on important issues?
🟥Republican 41%
🟦Democratic 40%
—
Which political party do you trust to do a better job handling the…
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 18, 2026

Anything under D+4 on election night is likely a good sign for Republicans, as they may narrowly hold on to the House. Anything greater will be a win for House Democrats https://t.co/NFpiBqmulL
— Chase Bowes (@PolPredictions) July 18, 2026

Democratic vote share among voters who disapprove of Trump

2018: 🔵 Democrats 90%

*2026: 🔵 Democrats 69%

*(CNN Poll) pic.twitter.com/Rm58D4r9ii
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 19, 2026

Generic congressional ballot through the years

2018: 🔵 Democrats +10
2022: 🔴 Republicans: +2
2026: 🔵 Democrats +3

Washington Post/Ipsos poll pic.twitter.com/Za8lQeFkJD
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 19, 2026

Post-Ipsos: Mixed signals for Dems vs 2018 blue wave.

Generic Ballot
2018: Dems +10
2026: Dems +3
——
Enthusiastic Edge
2018: Dems +2
2026: Dems +10

"Despite Trump’s unpopularity, GOP isn’t losing badly on generic ballot. Their base lacks energy, but redistricting + fixes on… https://t.co/dkkYxMuLNQ pic.twitter.com/9ymQrAqtWG
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 19, 2026

In fact, as of now, Republicans would retain control of the House. We’ve entered that stage as we approach the dog days of summer. Anti-Trump operation Sarah Longwell is spot-on here: Democrats simply think voters will flock to them. Not the case, they’re viewed even worse than Trump, and that’s showing up endlessly in these surveys. Having a bunch of whack job socialists in the mix isn’t helping either.

At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter. https://t.co/9LgLHkwnYf
— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) July 19, 2026

At the same time, the GOP isn't doing itself any favors. They’ve been bungling the SAVE America Act. They hesitated over DHS funding, mistakenly thinking Democrats were serious about a deal: they instead pulled a Tehran, exploiting the GOP’s love for tradition, only to back out, waste more of the Senate GOP’s time, and achieve the goal of keeping the agency shut down, even as Operation Epic Fury began.

Trump’s approval ratings need to rise, and gas prices must fall. The latter, which affects affordability, is now uncertain as the possibility of full-scale war with Iran is back on the table.

Also, a near 20-point drop in how Democrats view Trump? Is Trump derangement syndrome fizzling out? Either way, for another week, this was a slate of polls that were near-disastrous for Democrats hoping to ride into DC in January on a blue wave.

Thao we are terrible numbers for democrats. More evidence that 2026 will be an inverse of 2022.
— Khoa (@1980Khoa) July 19, 2026

Also, huge news for Rep. Fitzpatrick in a competitive, very much up-for-grabs district in Pennsylvania.

Brian Fitzpatrick is the favorite to win PA-01, a Harris district, after key endorsements

PA-01 Odds Per @Kalshi
🔴 Brian Fitzpatrick: 60%
🔵 Bob Harvie: 40% https://t.co/AWd55aWOJO pic.twitter.com/WOeCTDjUVN
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 19, 2026

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