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This Brutal Tweet From an Anti-Trump Operative Sums Up the Latest Slate of Polls for Dems

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  July 20, 2026 6:55 AM

History shows that the party in power usually loses seats in the midterms. It’s just how things tend to happen. It’s the cyclical balancing act. The only recent exceptions to this pattern were the 2002 midterms, when Bush and the GOP gained seats, and the 1998 midterms, when Bill Clinton also experienced no loss. After that, you have to go back to 1934. 

The situation has changed, but not least because the latest polls show a significant drop in Democrats' disapproval of Trump. No, I’m serious. In 2018, it was 90 percent. Now, it’s only 69 percent. And despite what Democrats hoped would be a strong advantage in the generic ballot, they just can’t pull it off right now. Republicans are either tied with Democrats or leading by three to four points. That’s not enough to flip the House.

In fact, as of now, Republicans would retain control of the House. We’ve entered that stage as we approach the dog days of summer. Anti-Trump operation Sarah Longwell is spot-on here: Democrats simply think voters will flock to them. Not the case, they’re viewed even worse than Trump, and that’s showing up endlessly in these surveys. Having a bunch of whack job socialists in the mix isn’t helping either.

At the same time, the GOP isn't doing itself any favors. They’ve been bungling the SAVE America Act. They hesitated over DHS funding, mistakenly thinking Democrats were serious about a deal: they instead pulled a Tehran, exploiting the GOP’s love for tradition, only to back out, waste more of the Senate GOP’s time, and achieve the goal of keeping the agency shut down, even as Operation Epic Fury began. 

Trump’s approval ratings need to rise, and gas prices must fall. The latter, which affects affordability, is now uncertain as the possibility of full-scale war with Iran is back on the table. 

Also, a near 20-point drop in how Democrats view Trump? Is Trump derangement syndrome fizzling out? Either way, for another week, this was a slate of polls that were near-disastrous for Democrats hoping to ride into DC in January on a blue wave.  

Also, huge news for Rep. Fitzpatrick in a competitive, very much up-for-grabs district in Pennsylvania.