New Poll Shows Where Vance and Newsom Stand in Hypothetical 2028 Election Matchup

Leah Barkoukis | August 29, 2025 11:00 AM

A new survey released Friday shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom surging ahead of other potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.

Newsom’s 25 percent support is a 13-point increase since June, according to the Emerson College poll. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails the California governor with 16 percent support, followed by 11 percent for former vice president and failed 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, 5 percent for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 4 percent support each for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, and 3 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders.

NEW: NATIONAL POLL

2028 Democratic Primary

Newsom 25% (+13)
Buttigieg 16% (-)
Harris 11% (-2)
Shapiro 5% (-2)
AOC 4% (-3)
Prtizker 4% (+2)
Sanders 3% (-2)

(Movement since June poll)https://t.co/wJeYcotpGa pic.twitter.com/kpdXMnLAbY
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 29, 2025

“Governor Newsom's support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and White (10% to 24%) voters,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
“Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%."

Vice President JD Vance has the support of more than half of Republican voters (52 percent), while Secretary of State Marco Rubio trailed with 9 percent support and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 7 percent.

A hypothetical matchup between Newsom and Vance showed support for the two tied at 44 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

🇺🇸 2028 Presidential Election

🟥 Vance: 44.4% (-0.7 from July)
🟦 Newsom: 43.5% (+1.4)
⬜ Not sure: 12.1%

Emerson (A-) | 8/25-26 | 1,000 RV https://t.co/WwoHRblMXq pic.twitter.com/X5GKWoo9tm
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2025

Asked about how Newsom and his press office have recently been mimicking President Trump's social media feed, Vance said authenticity is key and it's clear the governor is trying to be a "a fake carbon copy of Donald Trump and it just doesn't work."

J.D. “JUST DANCE” VANCE, WHO NOBODY LIKED UNTIL TRUMP PICKED HIM OUT OF THE "BARGAIN BIN" IN THE WALMART CLEARANCE SECTION, WENT ON FOX TO TRASH ME, GAVIN C. NEWSOM, AMERICA'S MOST POPULAR GOVERNOR. THE DANCING QUEEN CAN’T STOP! I LIVE RENT-FREE IN HIS HEAD (VERY TINY SPACE,…
— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) August 29, 2025

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