Tipsheet

New Poll Shows Where Vance and Newsom Stand in Hypothetical 2028 Election Matchup

Leah Barkoukis
Leah Barkoukis  |  August 29, 2025 11:00 AM

A new survey released Friday shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom surging ahead of other potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.

Newsom’s 25 percent support is a 13-point increase since June, according to the Emerson College poll. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails the California governor with 16 percent support, followed by 11 percent for former vice president and failed 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, 5 percent for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 4 percent support each for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, and 3 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders. 

“Governor Newsom's support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and White (10% to 24%) voters,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. 
“Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%."

Vice President JD Vance has the support of more than half of Republican voters (52 percent), while Secretary of State Marco Rubio trailed with 9 percent support and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 7 percent.

A hypothetical matchup between Newsom and Vance showed support for the two tied at 44 percent, with 12 percent undecided. 

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Asked about how Newsom and his press office have recently been mimicking President Trump's social media feed, Vance said authenticity is key and it's clear the governor is trying to be a "a fake carbon copy of Donald Trump and it just doesn't work."

Newsom's office continued with more of the same in response.