This should be a moment of clarity; instead, we’re flying blind as we enter the final stages of the midterms. The math doesn’t match the polls. Some look promising for Republicans, while others show a total wipeout. Who’s telling the truth? The fact is, polling has degraded so much that, if you have the money, you can get a poll to confirm anything, and that’s why we’re in this mess. We hit a nadir during the Francesca Hong stuff in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary: a polling firm released a fake poll showing her ahead by about 18 points to see what the social ramifications would be. Hong lost, and the firm shuttered after the election.
Signs suggest Democrats might have a chance, but other indicators suggest the GOP could retain control of Congress. If the polling averages are off, especially in the Midwest, the GOP could squeak out a win. Voter registration in key states still shows robust GOP advantages; Democrats have made no inroads. At this point, GOP campaigns and donors should trust their gut, avoid watching suppression material in the mainstream media, and move forward. They have no choice anyway — no one is dropping out, removing candidates, or releasing new ad material for new campaign narratives. You all know it’s too late for that. Now it’s about shoring up the GOTV operation and praying to avoid election-killing gaffes or scandals.
“Ladies and gentlemen, I am not predicting a blue tsunami,” says @MarkHalperin, gently pushing back on a mischaracterization, on @theallinpod, of his analysis. “What I have said repeatedly,” says Mark, “is my Republican sources for several weeks have been very, very dire in their view. Many working on races say they’re going to lose their own races... I’m saying my sources say they believe that the Republicans will be wiped out — Democrat and Republican sources.” @TheDemocrats @Republicans @LarryOConnor @KevinPWalling @2waytvapp
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 6, 2026
Massive undercount, per my sources from last month. https://t.co/t8QLrA9YcI
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) October 12, 2026
Yup.
— L A R R Y (@LarryOConnor) October 12, 2026
There isn’t going to be a blue wave.
— Troy M. Olson 🇺🇸🦅🗽 (@TroyMOlson) October 12, 2026
First four days of Ohio early voting. Here is the data. I see no Democratic enthusiasm. I see erosion. Day 1, the Democratic base stormed early in-person voting: D+18 statewide, D+49 across the eight big blue counties. By day 4 it was D+11 statewide and D+41 in those same counties. A six-to-eight point slide in four days, inside the strongholds, with no sign of a floor. The number of registered Democrats voting in person fell 17% from day 1 to day 4 statewide, and 12% in the blue counties, while total in-person volume held steady in those counties and slipped only 4% statewide. Who filled the gap? Unaffiliated voters, up 38% in the blue counties. Republicans didn't surge. Democrats faded. But the margin isn't the real problem. The volume is. Those eight blue counties are 49,000 to 65,000 ballots behind where they were at the same point in 2022. They are still 20,000 ballots short of what they had in mail requests alone on the day early voting opened in 2022, before a single in-person vote was cast that year. Mail requests in those counties are down 24%, about 104,000 fewer. The entire four-day in-person surge, 54,000 votes, fills only half of that hole. And 2022 was a year Democrats lost everything statewide. They are behind the pace of a losing year. To merely catch 2022 by the end of next week, the blue counties would need to nearly double their in-person pace, from about 13,500 a day to 25,000 a day, every day, Oct 12 to 16, while the share of those voters who are Democrats keeps shrinking. You don't flip a red state with a shrinking advantage on shrinking volume. You need a growing advantage on growing volume. Right now Ohio Democrats have neither. If turnout is soft on both sides, Republicans win Ohio anyway. That is what Ohio does. But sure, "blue wave." The world is ending.
— Walter Curt (@wcdispatch) October 12, 2026
🚨 NEW: Fox’s Brian @Kilmeade : “Look at this! Republicans are more popular than Democrats even though they’re the party in power when history says something different.” “One of the reasons: There’s no promising pitch. The American people are not stupid. They’ve seen the tried-and-true playbook before from the Democrats.” “Look, there’s no denying that President Trump and his party has challenges going into November. But voters deserve to know what the replacement may be.” “I know what Trump’s going to do and what he’s doing. But I got news for you: there’s no new plan from the opposition party this time around. They’re using their washed-up platform America already rejected.”
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) October 12, 2026
There isn’t a single proposal from Democrats to lower prices on anything (especially gas), only the real history of Dems having put us in a cost of living crisis in the first place. https://t.co/np1oyB0T9N
— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) October 12, 2026
We’ll find out in a few weeks. We’ll see who bought tickets to a circus soon enough, and it could be us.
