I was encouraged to read that the State Department has issued a direct threat of consequences to the Iranian Islamic regime, noting that President Trump is a man of action, if they continue to kill protesters, and then stepped it up by doing so in Farsi. The original post in English was a message delivered to the ayatollahs and IRGC leaders just fine, so why the post in Farsi? The point of issuing this threat in Farsi is to encourage and embolden the millions of Iranians who desperately seek regime change – for the end of the Islamic Republic.
The problem is that since President Trump first issued a clear threat that it would not be tolerated if the Iranian regime were to kill protesters, the Iranian regime has increased killing protesters.
On January 2, Trump posted, “If Iran shots (sic) and violently kills peaceful protesters which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Officially, 16 protesters have been killed, though there’s speculation that the actual number is higher. The point is that since January 2, more Iranians have been violently killed. Sure, the regime will say that they are not “peaceful protesters,” but the bottom line is that more Iranians have died.
Will the State Department post in any language make any difference to the regime? Will they read into it the threats that Trump made preceding the June 12-day war with Israel in which the U.S. participated to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities? Will they stand down? Or disregard Trump’s threat because, as he correctly noted, killing people and peaceful protests is their custom?
Will the Farsi post further encourage the Iranian protesters to bring more people out on the streets in more locations and target infrastructure and people that represent the regime and its evil Islamic oppression? And if that happens, the question must be asked, are Trump’s words and the State Department post only words? Or is there a plan to do something to help support the Iranian people? If not the latter, but yes to the former, will these harmless social media posts also become meaningless, and will it create the formula for more Iranians to be killed in cold blood?
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Coming in the wake of the U.S. arresting Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, Iranians would not be wrong to think that this is just a warmup act for the big show, bringing the ayatollahs to justice. It may inspire and motivate them to take action even more. This is necessary, but without international backing, or even the threats to intervene, there could be an unprecedented bloodbath that overshadows the murders in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, and in 2009 in the wake of Green Movement protests following the rigged election where many were killed and many more just disappeared.
Iranians were so disappointed with Obama, something he’s subsequently acknowledged that he should have done differently, they chanted a Farsi slogan that was a play on his name, “Obama, Obama — either with us or them.” This time there is no room to create doubt.
What do we need to consider in thinking about how this might play out? Since before his inauguration, President Trump has issued multiple direct threats to Hamas that if they don’t release all the hostages and disarm, there will be “hell to pay.” Hamas has not released all the hostages, it has not disarmed, and there has also been no hell to pay.
The ayatollahs are aware of that and may feel emboldened by it. The difference, they may see, is that in Gaza and against Hamas, “hell” could be in the form of Trump facilitating or simply enabling Israel to finish the job. That would mean risking Israeli lives, and the certain death of Gazans, some of whom may not be terrorists. But it would be an Israeli operation. It’s hard to imagine Trump issuing orders for boots on the ground in Gaza, or the U.S.’ own massive bombing, all of which may be needed to disarm and finish Hamas in Gaza.
But in Iran there is no military that is coming to the defense of the Iranian people. If Iranians feel that through Trump’s words, subsequent social media posts, and following Maduro’s arrest, the next stop is Tehran, they may be in for a rude awakening.
I hope not. I hope that President Trump has something up his sleeve vis a vis Iran. I hope he realizes that as much as Maduro’s Venezuela was not only illegitimate but a threat to the U.S., the Islamic Republic is a greater threat to the U.S. and to the world. I hope that maybe in between the posts and rhetoric, there’s a plan that’s being hatched, just waiting for the green light. In June, there was no shortage of disinformation about the inevitability of military action against Iran, catching the Islamic regime off guard. Maybe there’s a lot more that we don’t know, waiting to be known. Hopefully.
But even if that is the case, Iran is vastly bigger than Venezuela and I suspect the “Supreme Leader” Khamenei was better protected than Maduro before this week, and even more so now. Same with his sons/heirs, the Iranian president, and IRGC leaders. Getting in and making such an arrest would be vastly harder. Rather than letting himself get arrested, or lynched by the Iranians who he and others have brutalized over nearly half a century, there are reports that Khamenei has an elaborate plan to escape to and be protected in Russia.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is the greatest threat to peace and security to the largest number of people across the world. Maduro’s Venezuela was one of its outposts. Assad’s Syria was another. Maduro is now in custody in New York and Assad is hiding in Russia. Regime change is long overdue. The Iranian people pray for it and are putting action behind their words. The U.S. and the West must do so as well, for their own wellbeing and so as not to let the Iranian people down again.
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