We’ve remarked plenty on Biden’s historic shift leftwards and his choice to ignore paper-thin congressional majorities, pursuing instead his FDR fever dream. We’ve pointed out his broken promises of unity and bipartisanship too, so evident in last night’s address. So, let’s ask a more interesting question: what was the purpose of Biden’s speech last night? Biden’s speech had one purpose, one goal: keep the poll numbers for his giveaways as high as possible for as long as possible before bigger crosswinds arrive.
Let’s make a few things clear as we explore that. One, Biden’s majority is the weakest in 20 years, and his top line job approval number has a ceiling, even with the economic boom to come. Two, the political debate over the next few months doesn’t involve Republicans, nor is it about the merits of individual policies, laws, or regulations. Instead, what matters is how much of the Democrats' agenda they can cram into the suitcase of budgetary reconciliation until that suitcase gets overfilled and forces their determined hands on the filibuster.
So why the sales pitch last night? Poll questions, framed by friendly media organizations and untied from costs and consequences, show support for the Powerball of cash and other giveaways Biden intends to award. The administration then can – and not entirely without merit – point to individual poll numbers to overcome the friction of 1) the executive branch overreach Biden has embarked upon and 2) the abuse of the reconciliation process and other legislative norms Democrats have planned. The poll numbers for each individual part of the spending spree, each store in the Mall that Biden intends to run up the national credit card in, are vital to the plan.
The Year One Lie of the Biden presidency has already been told. Every time you see a mainstream headline with either the words “goes big” or “Biden’s bold something,” you know that’s the varnish painted on top of the lie. There was no breakthrough, no consensus shift into a next era of American politics, no unity, no lowered temperature: just a president willing to smash even more norms than his predecessors. The FDR comparisons give it away: not just intentions, but the lie. FDR swept into power with 472 electoral college votes and massive majorities in both houses of the legislature. He actually had a mandate, disastrous as many of the outcomes were.
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Joe Biden does not. His actions – taking swipes at Republicans in his first press conference, signaling he’s open to nuking the filibuster or packing the Court – are small in stature, not the kind emblazoned later on plaques and statues. He can accomplish an outsized legacy only by choosing to work around the system. That’s why the poll numbers for individual policies matter so much, they allow the administration to deflect from their slim majority and the institutional constraints Biden and Democrats hope to bludgeon into irrelevance.
Joe Biden is choosing reconciliation over reconciliation. He is pursuing massive and irreversible spending via budgetary reconciliation that later generations will marvel with resentment at as they pay down the national credit card. Who needs to worry about a filibuster when you can spend us into social democracy without 60 Senate votes? In the Democrats' world, the Senate becomes the House, and the Court becomes the Senate, the super-legislature the Left long used the Court as. The only constraint we’ve seen them respect so far are the rulings of the Senate Parliamentarian on what can fit into reconciliation packages, but of course there are already calls by Democrats for workarounds or to replace the parliamentarian. Don’t be surprised if instead of that move, Harris simply steps forward in her Presiding Officer role to overrule the parliamentarian – same effect, less blowback.
So, this summer’s plan is to spend several trillion more on wealth redistribution, spread meticulously from cradle to grave – from free nursery school, to expanded long-term care, to a stricter death tax to claw some of that money back after you die – and the poll numbers are the vital short-term key to legitimizing that plan. If Biden can coast on those and get this spending through, upon exhausting those options, he’ll then begin the uphill transition to the destabilizing work of removing the filibuster and binding America to the progressive’s vision for a full generation.
So, that’s the plan for the summer. What Republican legislators do isn’t relevant, the Biden administration has made that clear. Last night, Republican leaders condemned Biden for violating his pledges on unity and bipartisanship as if that condemnation matters one wit to what he’s accomplishing. Without real expressions of outrage, without the next Resistance, there is nothing to slow Biden down. What conservatives can take some solace in is that Biden and the Democrats have telegraphed each step of this. They don’t conceal their intentions. Recognize the playbook, and we can start to build an effective defense.
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