Happy birthday, America! This week we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our Declaration of Independence. Washington, DC, is draped in red, white, and blue. There are birthday celebrations across the country and many places in the rest of the world. In Bangkok, the Thai government is wishing us happy birthday on trains, boats, and tuk-tuks!
But for us "based" individuals, the number 250 is a grim portent. For the last several years, conservatives have circulated an essay by the British knight John Glubb called "Fate of Empires." Originally written in 1976, Fate of Empires spells out a formula that great empires last 10 generations or about 250 years.
That means we’ve hit a great milestone, but also a possible scary expiration date.
Glubb cites a variety of empires, both ancient and modern, for his formula – such as Assyria (859 to 612 BC, 247 years), Ottoman (1320 to 1570 AD, 250 years), and Spain (1500 to 1750 AD, 250 years) – though it’s only an estimate. The Roman Republic lasted 233 years (260 to 27 BC) while its successor empire lasted 207 (27 BC to 180 AD) before the beginning of its slow, inevitable decline.
What’s rock solid is Glubb’s formula for how nations decline: a dynamic pioneer period is followed by military success which leads to wealth, which leads to decadence, which leads to conquest by another power or powers. He cites easily recognized elements of decadence such as the growth of a welfare state or decline in religious participation, but there’s a lot more.
Education plays a huge role in imperial fall. While that might have seemed odd to someone who read it 50 years ago, it’s impossible to miss it now. Wealthy merchant princes endowing colleges and universities so they can see their names on buildings, but the overemphasis on intellect leads to weakness. Given what a threat higher education has become to America, this one’s obvious to see.
One of the more controversial items he cites is how an empire’s wealth and luxury lead to women assuming public roles that they didn’t before. In the 10th century, at the conclusion of the so-called Islamic Golden Age, “women demanding admission to the professions hitherto monopolised by men.” Glubb writes:
Many women practised law, while others obtained posts as university professors. There was an agitation for the appointment of female judges, which, however, does not appear to have succeeded. Soon after this period, government and public order collapsed, and foreign invaders overran the country. The resulting increase in confusion and violence made it unsafe for women to move unescorted in the streets, with the result that this feminist movement collapsed.
It is impossible to read this and not think of the mass sexual assaults that Middle Eastern and African refugees invaders are freely committing against European women and girls every day. It’s not so bad in the United States … yet.
Indeed, the influx of foreigners is another one of Glubb’s irrefutable signs of imperial collapse. When an empire becomes powerful, its wealthy citizens no longer want to do dirty work, so they hire immigrants as servants. Over the generations, the descendants of these servants rise to positions of power within the empire while feeling no loyalty to it. In a prophetic foretelling of the TrumpLand/Clinton archipelago, Glubb writes:
This interesting phenomenon is largely limited to great cities. The original conquering race is often to be found in relative purity in rural districts and on far frontiers. … As, with the growth of industry, cities nowadays achieve an ever greater preponderance over the countryside, so will the influence of foreigners increasingly dominate old empires.
And as we see the horrifying rise of non-Americans elected in hopelessly blue cities, this one is impossible to ignore.
So the proverbial writing is on the wall: the American empire has had its day in the sun. That doesn’t mean that our end is inevitable, but the end of our comfortable status quo is. Something has to change.
When Julius Caesar recognized that the Roman Republic was no longer serving the interests of its people, he realized he needed to create a new status quo. Caesar didn’t survive to see that change made, but this change was finalized by his nephew, Octavian, later Augustus – rising to power as Rome’s first and arguably greatest emperor in the aforementioned 27 BC.
Given that Julius and Augustus are the only two mortals who have months named after them, maybe we should follow their example. Democrats like to make eyeroll-inducingly vapid comparisons of Trump to Caesar. (It’s nothing new: John Wilkes Booth compared Lincoln to Caesar too.) Of course, this has left many of us wishing that Trump were the Caesar our enemies think he is.
So happy birthday, America: our Founders 250 years ago could never have predicted how wildly successful their experiment would prove. Here’s hoping leaders today can successfully plan for the next 250.
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