Russia's war to conquer Ukraine has been raging since February 2022. At first, the Russian offensive seemed fated for success: Russian troops came within a few kilometers of Kyiv, and Western powers offered President Volodymyr Zelenskyy exit from the country. Zelenskyy refused; Ukrainian forces proceeded to hold off and reverse the Russian offensive. Within a few weeks, the battle lines solidified, with Russia continuing to hold much of the territory in the East and Crimea they had held since 2014. The only potential solution was the obvious solution: an armistice essentially freezing the lines of conflict and security guarantees to Ukraine sufficient to deter another Russian attack.
But no solution could be found. Russia demonstrated little interest, after mid-2022, in any negotiated end to the war.
President Donald Trump came into office pledging to end the war -- a war that has cost Ukrainians at least 50,000 dead and the Russians as many as 200,000 dead. To that end, he pressured Zelenskyy to come to the table. Zelenskyy eventually did, offering an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Russian President Vladimir Putin has thus far refused any such ceasefire -- presumably because he hopes that the Trump administration will pull its support from Ukraine, thereby leaving the country vulnerable to a final Russian offensive.
And herein lies the problem for Trump. He knows -- as everyone knows -- that the only off-ramp for the war lies in a Korean War-style armistice. But Russia still refuses to come to the table, no matter the pleading and cajoling of special envoy Steve Witkoff, whose negotiating style seems to be warmly embracing various anti-American dictators, speaking kindly about them in public, and then hoping they will give him what he seeks.
In order to reach an end to the war, therefore, the Trump administration ought to fully consider just what (SET ITAL)Russia(END ITAL) wants at this point. And the answer happens to be surprisingly simple: Russia wants either Ukraine conquered or a puppet government in place or a clear pathway to conquering Ukraine in the future. We know this because Russia repeatedly says it.
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Alexander Dugin, a philosopher and geopolitics expert known colloquially as "Putin's brain," spelled all of this out in his magnum opus, "Foundations of Geopolitics" (1997) -- a book that was apparently used as a textbook at the General Staff Academy. For Dugin, the Russian spirit can only be animated by imperial dreams; regional power alone would be "tantamount to suicide for the Russian nation." The antithesis of the Russian spirit is "'the West' as a whole." And Ukraine -- an independent country that should be suffused with that "Russian spirit" but that wants to orient towards the West -- represents a stinging rebuke to the Russian identity as a whole. Thus, Dugin argues, Ukraine must rejoin Russia or forever be condemned to a "puppet existence and geopolitical service" to the West. Ukraine's continued existence as a sovereign state, Dugin argues, "is tantamount to a monstrous blow to Russia's geopolitical security, tantamount to an invasion of its territory." Now, during the war, Dugin writes, "We must win the war in Ukraine, liberate the entire territory of this former country from the Nazi regime. Regardless of Trump's victory or anything else, this imperative remains unchanged. Just as the ancient Roman consul Cato the Elder used to say, 'Carthage must be destroyed,' in our case, 'Kiev must be taken.'"
So, if the true Russian goal is the destruction or subjugation of Ukraine, how could Russia be brought to the table? Only through the "peace through strength" policy Trump pursued during his first term. Only a Russia that believes that the West will refuse to surrender Ukraine will be pressured into an armistice. Trump seems ready to consider that possibility; he's now acknowledging publicly that Putin seems to be slow-playing him. But the answer won't be more sanctions. It will be a recognition that Ukraine's sovereignty can only be guaranteed by force of arms -- and that an off-ramp can only be achieved by a guarantee of that sovereignty.
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