If the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, then the time has come to make an accounting of the fighting.
So what is the outcome of nearly two years of fighting between Israel and its enemies? If the Trumpian ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, then maybe it’s time to look at what has transpired and try to figure out where things are going. We no longer live in previous ages where wars were won decisively. Victors strode into the capitals of their vanquished foes, and if one wanted to go back far enough, married the dead king’s wife. Winston Churchill tried to butter up Joseph Stalin: “Joe, you made it all the way to Berlin!” Stalin was having nothing of it: “Alexander I got to Paris."
When the dust settles in the Middle East, Israel’s foes will all be around, if in weakened or modified forms. It’s important to note that Hezbollah did not fire a single rocket in support of its patron, Iran, during the 12 days of active fighting. Between its decimation by Israel and its weakened position in Lebanese politics, the uber-terror group chose wisely to lay low, even as Israel assassinated several of its members during this time period. An economist estimates that the mullah-ocracy in Tehran wasted $9 trillion in nuclear development, weapons acquisitions and massive payouts to the many terror groups who rely on Iran for their financial lifeline. That’s an enormous amount of money stolen from the Iranian people, and much of it is under rubble between Rafah and Fordow.
The fighting between Israel and Iran was a first. Israel used surprise and a strong ground game to dominate the skies; thousands of sorties were run, and hundreds of targets were attacked and destroyed, for the loss of two Hermes drones. Israel, as is its custom, hampered itself by inventing new rules of engagement to which it will be held forever. As in Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon, the IDF warned Iranians to leave certain areas prior to their destruction. More damaging, Israel did not attack Iran’s economic assets, specifically Kharg Island, where the country’s oil industry is located. Israel tried to balance its goals of destroying nuclear and missile technologies along with IRCG facilities, with a desire to be pro-Iranian people. Bibi Netanyahu and others spoke about the relations between regular Iranians and Israelis. That is all very nice, but war is war, and if one needs to destroy something and civilians may be killed, or Iran’s economy will tank without oil, then one needs to be ruthless and not sentimental. As of right now, the mullahs and their thugs still seem to be in control and it’s anybody’s guess if they have been weakened enough to allow for a successful rebellion.
It would seem that all of Israel’s enemies will still be around in some form. Let’s look at the rogues’ gallery:
– Hamas. It would appear that the war will end soon, with some form of Hamas still being in Gaza and in control. All of the promises of crushing Hamas will fade with Donald Trump demanding that the war end now.
– Lebanon. There is enough of Hezbollah left in the country that Lebanon cannot join the Abraham Accords and Israel still keeps troops in the country. There are near daily attacks against Hezbollah soldiers or facilities. The group has been greatly weakened but still has a large following in the country.
– Syria: In a flash, the Assads were gone and replaced by a GQ version of an ISIS terrorist. The countries are having negotiations, and there is no way that Israel could have attacked Iran if Syria had been an active enemy/Iranian client state. Many of the strike packages came through Syrian airspace. Hundreds of Iranian drones were downed over Syria.
– Yemen. The Houthis have not been destroyed, even if Israel killed many of their top people and wiped out a lot of their infrastructure. As in Afghanistan, they live in the 7th Century, so they don’t have a defeatable profile. Bomb them, and they are still there. If they don’t fire more missiles, it is either because they don’t want to or Tehran told them to stop.
– Iran. Iran printed its victory headlines before the war started. The reality is that they suffered massive destruction and losses. From top commanders to nuclear scientists, a lot of them are dead. The IAF destroyed large numbers of facilities related to all facets of Iranian industry and war-making. Donald Trump made the slam dunk with the B2 and Tomahawk apocalypse. Trump bought the stage and tolerated a pathetic Iranian response in an empty base in Qatar. He then told Israel to return its jet fighters, even though the mullahs had fired a rocket after the official ceasefire time. “It didn’t hit anything.” So Israel hit a radar station and called it a war.
– Qatar. This evil and duplicitous country has grown in stature and bought people to serve as its surrogates. It is a dangerous country that needs to be brought down a peg or two.
I always thought the past determines the future. But the future can change the way we understand the past. If the fighting leads to Israeli relations with Saudi Arabia and the emerging Syrian government, then Israel’s position in the region will have been strengthened, even if its enemies are still around. While Israel’s anti-missile systems dealt with many incoming projectiles, the rockets that got through caused around 3 dozen deaths, hundreds of injuries and the destruction of numerous buildings, including some important facilities. How Israel will deal with this threat in the future will be key. New technologies will be required to get those warheads not destroyed by the existing Arrow, THAAD, and other systems. We saw the last missiles on Tuesday heading south towards Beersheba. Four people were killed by a single missile impact—they were in their safe room which was no match for the impacting warhead.
Donald Trump is the big winner of the recent fighting. He got rid of Iran’s nuclear facilities without any losses and moved into a position where he could dictate an end to hostilities. If they make another Godfather movie, the Don will play the Don.
Going forward, Iran will not be in a position to splurge on the gentrified versions of Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah. These groups will continue to exist but probably not have the financial or military resources needed to seriously threaten Israel. Iran may simply buy nuclear weapons with oil and drones rather than risk trying to build new facilities. Missiles can be purchased from North Korea or Pakistan, so Israel will either have to deter Iran by threatening a second beatdown or be ready to periodically “mow the lawn” when the threat becomes too big to ignore.
Israel may be declared the victor of the various wars around her, but her enemies still exist. Whether Iran can fix the damage and afford to fund its proxies will be the key question as to whether the mullahs and their satellites are finished. Israel may have given more than it got but it still needs to figure out how to prevent missile warheads from slamming into hospitals and apartment buildings. People may go to bomb shelters or hide in protected rooms, but billions of shekels of damage will require attention—from a government that is already spending a fortune on wars in every direction.
If the flare-up with Iran brings the Saudis into the Abraham Accords, then the fighting will have brought serious dividends for the Jewish state. As they always say, stay tuned.
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