Trump Surges in Deep-Blue New Jersey As Voters Turn on Democrat Governor

Sarah Arnold | May 17, 2025 2:30 PM

In a striking shift for a deep-blue state, New Jersey voters now view President Donald Trump more favorably than their own Democratic Governor, Phil Murphy. Despite years of anti-Trump rhetoric from state leaders and media outlets, the numbers suggest growing frustration among residents, particularly as high taxes, rising inflation, and cost-of-living pressures take a toll on working Americans.

A recent Emerson College/Pix 11/The Hill poll shows that Trump is breaking even with New Jersey voters—47 percent approve of his performance. In comparison, another 47 percent disapprove, and six percent remain undecided or neutral. In contrast, Murphy is underwater in his own state. Just 40 percent of voters give him a favorable rating, compared to 45 percent who disapprove, leaving him with a net negative of five points. Another 15 percent of those surveyed didn’t express a clear opinion.

The poll is striking since a Democrat has won every election in the state since 1992. While former President Joe Biden carried the Garden State by 16 points in 2020, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by only six points. This was the Democratic Party’s worst performance in decades.

Meanwhile, Trump has seen a consistent rise in support from New Jersey voters over the last three presidential elections. In 2016, he received just over 1.6 million votes in the state. That number grew to more than 1.8 million in 2020, and by 2024, his total surpassed 1.9 million.

Wall Street Journal Assistant Editor James Freeman noted in an opinion piece that Trump performed better than anticipated in New Jersey during the 2024 election, finishing within six percentage points of Harris. He added that since then, Trump has appeared to maintain — and possibly even strengthen — his competitive position in the traditionally blue state.