Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has been increasingly getting under President Donald Trump's skin, with Tillis' Saturday night opposition to advancing the "Big, Beautiful Bill" appearing to bring this to a head. Tillis made further news on Sunday, when he announced he would not be seeking reelection, which is just as well, since Trump was already talking about him being primaried. Now that Tillis isn't running, how does that change the landscape for the 2026 midterms, if at all?
Tillis' 2020 seat was considered a battleground race, and it was likely always going to be for 2026 as well. Now there's no incumbency advantage, assuming that Tillis would win a primary even if he did run again. The last Democratic U.S. senator for North Carolina was Kay Hagan, who only served one term, before Tillis beat her in 2014. He won reelection in 2020, though his Democratic opponent, Cal Cunningham, was scandalized, to put it politely, by sending sexually explicit texts to a woman who was not his wife. North Carolina also just recently elected a Democratic governor, Josh Stein, and his predecessor, Roy Cooper, was also a Democrat and may run for Senate himself.
North Carolina is also considered something of a swing state, even though Tillis not only beat out an incumbent in 2014 and won reelection in 2020, but Trump won North Carolina in 2016, 2020, and 2024. He was predicted to win the state by +1.2, but actually won by +3.3 last November over then Vice President Kamala Harris.
Cook Political Report on Sunday moved the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up," referring to Tillis' retirement as "a surprise retirement," though is it really a surprise? Tillis himself said "It’s not a hard choice."
Larry Sabato's Center for Politics noted on Monday that the U.S. Senate race out of North Carolina is still a "Toss-Up," just as it was, even as other forecasters considered the race to slightly favor Tillis over incumbency advantage, if he was going to run. "North Carolina’s Senate race remains rated as a Toss-up, but the Tillis retirement naturally makes the race more fluid," one of the key points from Monday pointed out.
Inside Elections jumped right in on Sunday, sort of. The race had been considered "Battleground Republican," though now that remains to be seen. As Nathan L. Gonzales said on Sunday to weigh in about this and other races:
Inside Elections rated the North Carolina Senate race as a Battleground before Tillis’ decision and the open seat remains a Battleground for now. We’ll move to our full spectrum of ratings (Toss-up, Tilt, Lean, Likely and Solid) at the end of July. But North Carolina will continue to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
Overall, Republicans are early favorites to maintain control of the Senate, but North Carolina is arguably the GOP’s most vulnerable seat. Maine is a more Democratic state, but GOP Sen. Susan Collins will be difficult to defeat. North Carolina is a swing state, but an easier target as an open seat. All of the other Republican Senate seats up for election this cycle are significantly more Republican. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
Considering three-straight presidential victories by Trump, Republicans are confident they'll hold the seat. Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4 points in 2016, by 1 point in 2020, and 3 points in 2024.
But the state is more competitive when taking into account other elections. According to Inside Elections' Baseline, the typical GOP statewide candidate has just a 2.2-point advantage (50.9-48.6 percent). And this seat has featured two very close Senate races in the recent past. Tillis was first elected in 2014 when he defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, 48.8-47.3 percent. And he was re-elected in 2020, 48.7-46.9 percent, over Cal Cunningham.
That brings us to these other races. Republicans currently control both the House and the Senate, though by narrow majorities and they don't have enough seats to overcome the filibuster. They may hold onto such majorities when it comes to the 2026 midterms, but Republicans could also lose one chamber and hold onto the other, or even lose both.
Gonzales also referenced Maine, in that "GOP Sen. Susan Collins will be difficult to defeat." She was a heavy target in 2020, and managed to hold on. While pretty much every poll showed her behind Democrat Sara Gideon, Collins won by +8.6 in her most recent election.
There's more seats to watch as well, though these aren't exactly Democratic pickups. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is seen as particularly vulnerable, and perhaps the top pickup opportunity for Republicans. Michigan is an open seat, with Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who previously ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for 2022 and 2024 having announced in late January he wasn't running, and this may be another pickup for Republicans. Minnesota, although more likely to stay with Democrats, is also an open seat with Sen. Tina Smith not running for reelection either, as she announced a few weeks after that, in February. Still another retirement comes from New Hampshire, with Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announcing a few weeks after Smith's announcement, in mid-March, that she wasn't running again.
Beyond the mood of 2026, it could also always depend on the strength of the candidate and ultimate party nominees. Inside Elections mentioned such Republicans as Reps. Richard Harrison, Pat Harrigan, and Addison McDowell, though Harrison is currently chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Still other names include former Rep. Patrick McHenry, RNC Chairman Michael Whatley as well as former RNC co-chair for 2024 and the president's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, plus 2024 superintendent of public instruction nominee Michele Morrow.
Former Rep. Wiley Nickel is one of the Democrats running, though again, Cooper may be running. Gonzales notes that "Cooper’s entry would seem to be more likely" with this being an open seat. "But if Cooper passes for some reason, Wiley won’t likely have the race to himself. Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, former EPA Administrator Michael Regan, former CDC Director Mandy Cohen, and 2018 9th District nominee Dan McCready could all take a fresh look," Gonzales noted. Sabato also mentioned state Attorney General Jeff Jackson and Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt as possible Democrats who might run.
Cooper indeed seems to be one to watch, as he defeated then incumbent Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016 and won reelection once more in 2020.
He's no moderate, though, especially when it comes to abortion and his refusal to answer questions on protecting girls' and women's sports.
🚨NEW: Former Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper turns tail and RUNS when asked about his support for shredding the integrity of women's sports:
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) May 9, 2025
"Why do you support men being able to play women's sports?!"
He can't get into his Uber fast enough! 🤣 pic.twitter.com/MTgFqajorX
