Emerson College Polling released a new survey on the 2028 Democratic and Republican primaries, and it looks like there's some concerning news for the top two Democratic nominees. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the ultimate nominee for 2024 without receiving a single primary vote, has long been considered the top contender. She's slipped to second place, but it turns out there's concerning news for the new first place finisher as well, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
With her 13 percent support, Harris has now slipped to second place, while Buttigieg is in first place with 16 percent support with Democratic primary voters. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is in a close third with 12 percent. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), who was almost picked as Harris' running mate for 2024 is tied with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) for a distant fourth with 7 percent support. A plurality, at 23 percent, still selected "undecided," while 2 percent said "someone else" other than the 13 list of candidates.
The poll was conducted June 24-25 with 404 Democratic primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
NATIONAL POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) June 27, 2025
2028 Hypothetical Democratic Primary
Buttigieg 16%
Harris 13%
Newsom 12%
Shapiro 7%
AOC 7%
Sanders 5%
2028 Hypothetical GOP Primary
Vance 46%
Rubio 12%
DeSantis 9%
RFK Jr. 5%https://t.co/puBx84OlJv pic.twitter.com/w8OvGzuZ7A
While Buttigieg may have the overall edge ahead of Harris--who we're still hearing may run for governor to replace the term-limited Newsom for 2026--he's facing a major problem.
NBC News' Steve Kornacki highlighted over X the breakdown of support by racial demographic, and Buttigieg has 0 percent support with black people, something none of the 12 other candidates can claim. Harris, meanwhile, has the most support from such a demographic, at 30 percent.
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Regardless if whether or not Buttigieg's lead will hold, that 0 percent support among black people could be disastrous for a candidate running for the nomination of a party that cares so much about race and diversity.
Emerson polled a bunch of Dem prospects for the '28 WH nomination. Results are muddled but notable that Buttigieg, as in '20, still hitting a wall with black voters in this: pic.twitter.com/ShCOSRCOuS
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 27, 2025
While it remains to be seen whether Harris runs for governor or president yet again, Buttigieg seems quite likely to run for president again himself in 2028, given that he announced in March he wasn't going to run for U.S. Senate in Michigan in 2026 but still planned to be involved. He and Harris both ran for the 2020 Democratic nomination, and while Harris had to drop out in December 2019 before any contests were held, Buttigieg won Iowa.
Republicans, meanwhile, are much more decisive about who they want replacing President Donal Trump in 2028. Vice President JD Vance leads with a healthy plurality among Republican primary voters, with 46 percent support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in a distant second with 12 percent support. During his interview with NBC News' Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press" early last month, Trump named both Vance and Rubio as potential successors for the MAGA movement.
"Vice President Vance has solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest, backed by 52% of male Republican primary voters and voters over 60," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying in the Emerson press release.
Seventeen percent of Republican primary voters are "undecided" and that 4 percent would pick "someone else" other than the 12 candidates they were offered to choose from.
The poll also included 416 Republican primary voters, for whom there was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
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