Yet another poll brings bad news for Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) in her fight for reelection next year. As we've been covering since last December, Hochul's numbers are not where they want to be if she wants to serve another term. Hochul took over from now former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo when he resigned in August 2021, and won her first full term in November 2022, though her numbers were certainly less than impressive against former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin for such a supposedly blue state. As Townhall has also been covering, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) may ultimately run against Hochul next year, and the polls have been showing that she is the one with momentum.
Although there have been other polls we've covered, Siena College has been consistently putting out polls about Hochul's favorable ratings and reelection prospects. "Hochul Favorability & Job Approval Ratings Little Changed; Majority Prefer ‘Someone Else’ Over Hochul for Gov. in ’26; Still Leads Big Over Other Dems," read the headline for Tuesday's poll, and with a featured image of Stefanik included.
According to the most recent poll, Hochul's favorable rating among registered New York voters is currently at 44-46 percent. While her favorable rating was also at 44 percent last month, her unfavorable rating has gone up, as it was 43 percent at the time, putting the governor in negative territory. Both her approval disapproval numbers went down for her job performance. While she's at a 50-46 percent approval rating, she was at 48-45 percent approval last month.
That's not even the worst or most direct news to do with Hochul's reelection prospects though. Siena College has been asking for months whether New York voters want Hochul or "someone else" if she runs again, "as things stand now." A majority of voters, at 55 percent, say "someone else," while just 36 percent would go with the governor. Barely a majority of Hochul's fellow Democrats, at 51 percent, say they would go for Hochul.
In their coverage of the poll, Fox 5 went with such a focus, which Stefanik posted about to her political X account, complete with sirens.
— Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) May 21, 2025
If the Democratic primary were held today, Hochul wouldn't even get a majority of Democrats saying they'd support her. A plurality, at 46 percent, would pick Hochul, while 28 percent said "Don't know/refused." Other choices received meager support.
Where Stefanik comes further into this is that a plurality of Republicans, at 35 percent, also said they'd choose her as their nominee, while 30 percent said "Don't know/refused. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler received 22 percent support.
"After hitting year-long highs in both Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings last month, those numbers largely held constant this month, although Republicans, already very negative toward Hochul, turned even more so on both measurements,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg is quoted as saying. "And even more Republicans – 82% up from 68% last month – and independents – 64% up from 55% – prefer 'someone else' to be the next governor, while a small majority of Democrats, 51%, say they are prepared to reelect her."
While it's not expected that Republicans would cross the aisle to vote to reelect Hochul, that she's also doing worse with independents is certainly noteworthy. Those demographics also don't exactly give Hochul high favorable or approval numbers, either. Just 19 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independents say they have a favorable view of Hochul, while 24 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents approve of the job she's doing.
Also, for all of these "year-long highs," that doesn't mean Hochul's numbers gave her reason for hope. Another poll we've covered, Morning Consult, has consistently showed Hochul towards the bottom when it comes to ranking America's governors by popularity. The least popular governor per their most recent poll released last month, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) announced long after that she would not seek reelection.
Greenberg also spoke to Stefanik's standings in the poll. "When asking Republicans who they want to see as their gubernatorial nominee next year, Stefanik is their early frontrunner, with a small double-digit lead over her downstate colleague, Lawler, and Blakeman, with barely double-digit support, trailing badly. When Stefanik was not included last month, Blakeman had a narrow 6-point lead over Lawler," Greenberg said. "While Lawler and Blakeman both have virtually break-even favorability ratings, they are both unknown to a majority of voters and Republicans. Stefanik, more well known, has a negative overall favorability rating, 25-35%, but a two-to-one, 45-22%, favorability rating with Republicans."
The poll also looked to issues facing the state, including one that has been a hot topic at the national level as well when it comes to boys being able to complete against girls in sports. Republicans in Congress and in states around the country, including Stefanik, have focused on this being one of their top winning issues.
When asked which statement fit their position best, a plurality said they would prohibit boys from competing, with 46 percent saying that "All school districts should prohibit transgender girls from playing on girls sports teams." Except for liberals, a plurality or majority of all demographics selected such an option. Even Democrats were evenly split, with 32 percent choosing such a response, while 31 percent said that "All school districts should be required to allow transgender girls to play on girls sports." Voters were also able to choose an option in between, "All school districts should decide themselves whether or not to prohibit transgender girls from playing on girls sports teams."
The poll was conducted May 12-15 with 805 registered New York voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Hochul won in 2022 with 52.87 percent of the vote to Zeldin's 47.13 percent, hardly an impressive victory for the governor. Zeldin's impressive showing also helped elect Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022 for what was otherwise something of a disappointing midterm election, with the red wave never really materializing nationwide.
