The 2026 elections are still far away enough from now where anything could happen. Right now, though, the future does not look bright for the Democratic Party, given multiple polls showing record lows. And yet, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) still appears confident that his party can win back power for the midterms, as The Washington Post highlighted over the weekend.
A column by Paul Kane early on mentioned those problematic poll numbers, but also the hope that Jeffries is feeling:
After months of internal party turmoil, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries believes the Democratic Party emerged from the first quarter of the year in a strong position and with plenty of momentum heading toward the 2026 midterm elections.
“If the election were held today, we would win back the House of Representatives comfortably, and we need to continue to stay the course, stand up for the American people, push back against far-right extremism and articulate a positive vision,” the New York Democrat said in an interview Friday.
...
But the last two weeks provided a series of events that broke against Trump and Republicans. The two big signs that voters have begun to notice the damage inflicted by the party in power: Democratic strength in several recent elections and the financial markets’ collapse over Trump’s tariff policies, Jeffries said.
“Things change hourly, daily and weekly, but increasingly in this environment, hourly. It’s all been bad for Donald Trump and House Republicans, which is now finally breaking through to the surface,” Jeffries said.
That seems risky to have so much hope, and over those factors. Democrats won special elections for state legislature races in Pennsylvania late last month, and the Democrat-backed judge, Susan Crawford, won Wisconsin's state Supreme Court race last week. However, that same night as that Supreme Court race, Republicans won two special elections in Florida for the U.S. House.
It's only been one week since President Donald Trump announced tariffs. It had been just days when Kane's column was published. The president himself has urged Americans to be patient before the benefits are felt from the tariffs. Even one of Trump's biggest supporters, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has mentioned that they could go really well for Trump and Republicans, or really poorly, and that could certainly impact the midterms. Still, it's too soon to say.
There's another factor going up against Democrats, as an analysis from Cook Political Report and recent voter trends show, which the column also highlighted:
And according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Democrats at the moment have to play a little more political defense going into the 2026 midterms than Republicans do. The independent political firm rates that of the 40 most competitive House races, Democrats hold 22 of them.
When they last roared back into the majority, in 2018, Democrats had several dozen seats that GOP members held where those voters had also voted for Hillary Clinton over Trump. Now, with political polarization so thoroughly sorted, just three Republicans sit in seats that voted for Kamala Harris over Trump in November — the exact number that Jeffries needs to reach 218 seats and the majority.
...
But Democrats have a deep-seated problem in more exurban and rural areas where Trump won by more than five percentage points. Voters there often first associate Democrats with far-left policies such as defunding police and open borders.
When they won more than 40 seats in 2018, Democrats still had appeal to working-class voters. According to exit polls of the midterms, voters making less than $50,000 sided with Democrats, 59 percent to 38 percent.
Last year, voters in that same category favored Trump, 50 percent to 48 percent.
To expand the map, Jeffries needs to recruit candidates in the same vein that then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-California) and Rahm Emanuel (D-Illinois), as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, did in 2006 — culturally conservative and economically populist.
But Jeffries is walking a fine line in a caucus where far-left liberals often clash with moderate Democrats.
He spoke of candidates who are “well within the mainstream of the big tent of the Democratic Party” but also come from the “gorgeous mosaic of what the American people represent.”
Although the column doesn't touch upon this, it does mention Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who was chief among Biden's fellow Democrats forcing him out of the 2024 race. She and former President Barack Obama may have even threatened him with the 25th Amendment, if he didn't step aside on his own.
Then there's the interview Pelosi gave with The New York Times just days after then Vice President Kamala Harris lost the race last November to Trump. It was before the House was officially called in favor of Republicans, but not too long before Decision Desk HQ ultimately did so. Republicans had also gained back control of the Senate.
That interview was full of plenty of lamentations and blame. Pelosi seems to be more confident for the 2026 midterms, but time will tell.
Jeffries' confidence, which may turn out to be a pipe dream for him and his party, was certainly noticed by the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), which is focused on a Republican majority in the House. In a press release from Monday, the CLF highlighted further why it's certainly a bold plan that Jeffries has [emphasis original]:
Hakeem Jeffries told the Washington Post over the weekend Democrats would win back control of the House and the map favors Democrats.
Two very bold statements given Democrats’ record low approval ratings (nevermind Jeffries’ track record of incorrect predictions). But let’s put all that aside for now and focus on the realities of the congressional map:
There are only three Republican members representing districts won by Kamala Harris. (In 2018, there were 23 Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won, and Democrats targeted them all.)
Republicans are targeting all 13 Democrats in seats President Trump won in 2024. In total, there are 34 Democrats in seats Kamala Harris won by five points or less.
Demographic trends favor Republicans. President Trump has made MAJOR gains in seats with significant Latino populations. In some districts, there was a 20-point swing toward President Trump from 2020-2024.
Senate Democrats are retiring and it's expanding the House map. Last week, Chris Pappas announced he is vacating a competitive congressional seat to run for Senate.
Hakeem Jeffries is ignoring his own party's internal drama.
The bottom line: Trust Hakeem Jeffries at your own peril (which Democrats should feel free to do).
For the team that keeps saying this is “2018 all over again”….this list is MUCH smaller than the 59 folks the DCCC targeted originally in 2017.
— Torunn Sinclair (@TorunnSinclair) April 8, 2025
Dems are on defense. https://t.co/tObvzHYGs9
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