In light of "Liberation Day," Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Ben Ferguson discussed tariffs at length during Friday's episode of "The Verdict." There was also a warning about what Democrats will do to President Donald Trump if they're allowed to take back control of the House and even the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms. We've already seen this play out before, twice, during his first term, which is impeachment.
Cruz shared early on that he believes this past week "may well prove the single most consequential week in the Trump administration so far, and it may be the most consequential week in all four years of the second term of the Trump administration," adding it's "as a policy matter" and "a political matter."
The senator warned of the risks, while expressing there could be benefits as well. He also offered some scenarios when it comes to the questions of how other countries will react to the tariffs, and what the Trump administration will do.
The "very, very good" scenario involves other countries "freak[ing] out," which Cruz added they're already doing, and as a result want to negotiate with the White House and lower their tariffs to U.S. goods. Cruz seemed hopeful about that. "That may well happen. We're seeing some of that starting to happen. It may happen in a massive cascade. If that happens, that would be a very good thing," he highlighted.
If these countries "zero out their tariffs," it's also worth watching what the Trump administration does. If it "responds by dramatically cutting these tariffs, lowering them dramatically on this side, that would be a home run for America," Cruz offered. Again, he stressed that "that could happen."
He laid out a timeline of 30, 60, 90 days from now of trading partners having "slashed" their tariffs, with the Trump administration in also doing so, again emphasizing "that will be a great outcome for the American economy." The senator once more made clear his hope, adding, "I will celebrate. And if that happens, I will say, 'Donald Trump had a vision on trade that very few people in the world saw, and this was a friggin' home run.'"
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Ferguson mentioned how it's already happening, with a delegation arriving from Vietnam. Eric Trump also posted to X about how countries ought to arrive quickly to try to make a deal.
This represents that "best case scenario" Cruz mentioned.
I wouldn’t want to be the last country that tries to negotiate a trade deal with @realDonaldTrump. The first to negotiate will win - the last will absolutely lose. I have seen this movie my entire life…
— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) April 3, 2025
There's still "the downside," though, which is that "other countries get pissed off, and they jack up tariffs, and they impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods, and the tariffs Trump put in place remain in place."
"And I got to say, if we're in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods and every other country on Earth, that is a terrible outcome," Cruz warned.
If that's the case, Cruz previewed that "it would destroy jobs here at home and do real damage to the U.S. economy if we had tariffs everywhere." The senator also warned that "this is going to have a powerful upward impact on inflation."
Certainly these outcomes are "painful," but there might still be some good to come out of these tariffs. Cruz spoke to that by reminding what Trump himself said.
"President Trump has acknowledged, he said, 'look, there may be some pain, but it's worth it,'" the senator reminded, before also bringing up the scenarios he had just mentioned. Cruz recalled how the scenario would be if "foreign countries slash their tariffs on American goods, and we, in turn, lower the tariffs that the Trump administration just announced," once more stressing his hope for that. "That's a great outcome, and we will see a big economic boom from that. And so I'm hoping for that, I'm rooting for that I will celebrate and praise the administration if that's the outcome," he added.
Cruz went on to remind how much he supports Trump as president. "And listen, I love President Trump. I'm his strongest supporter in the Senate. I think he's doing incredible things as president," Cruz continued, though he still cautioned listeners to understand that "a tariff is a tax, and it is a tax, principally on American consumers," as he warned about the ensuing tax increase that could follow. In case there's any doubt, Cruz made clear he's not a fan of that. "I got to say, I am not a fan of tax increases on American consumers. I'm not a fan of tariffs. And so if this is leverage to lower tariffs, great. But if the outcome is tariffs stay in place forever, that is going to do a lot of harm in the American economy."
Later in the program, Cruz brought up 1930 once more, with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs and a trade war. However, as Cruz acknowledged, "I will say we are in a very different world from 1930," with the United States "having massively more leverage," with other countries being hurt more than our own from the tariffs. There's another positive impact, "an unquestionable benefit," though it will take some time, which is the announcement of new manufacturing plants being built in America.
The tariffs bringing about the worst case scenarios don't merely impact the economy and inflation, though. Those impacts could also spell bad news for Republicans and Trump for the 2026 midterms. In speaking "politically" about the tariffs, he previewed that the tariffs' effects will "be probably the single biggest determinant of what the 2026 midterm elections look like."
"If these tariffs result in massively higher prices, result in driving up costs for U.S. companies, result in job losses, and put us into a recession--and to be clear there, if the tariffs remain in place and we have retaliatory tariffs, that is a very possible outcome, if we go into a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026 in all likelihood, politically, would be a bloodbath," Cruz explained That could affect not just the House, but also the Senate. "You would face a Democrat House, and you might even face a Democrat Senate. Look, we've got a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but if we're in the middle of a recession and people are hurting badly, they punish the party in power," he added.
Democrats likely won't waste any time, either. "And to be clear, if that happens... in January of 2027 the Democrat House that gets elected, will immediately impeach Donald Trump, and we would spend the next two years of 2027 and 2028 with constant impeachment battles, constant investigations, constant political attacks, all of the weaponization that we saw in the first term," Cruz laid out.
As Ferguson spoke to "déjà vu," Cruz corrected him to say it would be "on steroids."
Thus, Cruz and Ferguson both stressed, these tariffs represent, "by far," what is "the highest risk play so far" from Trump's two terms. Cruz's Senate colleagues are indeed concerned, though again, this could play out very well.
Trump, as Cruz also reminded, has also used tariffs as leverage. What Cruz called "the clearest example of that" is the tariffs announced against Canada and Mexico to get our neighbors to help us secure the border, something Trump announced days after being elected last November. That example, Cruz stressed, "is very effective" and the president "uses it really well."
"I am emphatically in favor" of that, Cruz added. "It is proven successfully, it worked incredibly well in the first term" for Trump, which had a beneficial effect on the border, and could now for Trump's second term and this "imperative" priority. That is something Cruz is all for.
There's been a lot of chatter and even concern, including even from Republicans, with four of them voting with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) to reject tariffs on Canada. Cruz wasn't one of them, though.
Cruz laid out perhaps the best and most balanced best and worst scenarios for how these tariffs could go for, leaving Americans with a clear goal in mind to hope for.
Tariffs, Tariffs Everywhere-What Will it Do to the US Economy, Inflation & Jobs@benfergusonshow and I explain in the latest episode of Verdict: https://t.co/4I1CdGc7Bl
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) April 4, 2025
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