When she won a full term in 2022, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) didn't exactly win by much, especially for running in such a blue state. Her time as governor has gone downhill from there, as her popularity ratings have been in the toilet. If she does run again, she's likely to face quite the uphill battle, as not even a majority of Democrats have said they want her to run again.
On Thursday, Morning Consult put out an analysis on how "Kathy Hochul Is Among the Most Unpopular Governors Up for Re-Election in 2026," and their findings are actually far kinder than those from Siena College. As we covered at the time last month, that poll showed that only 33 percent of registered voters would reelect her, while 57 percent want "someone else." Further, only a plurality of Democrats, at 48 percent, would reelect her, while 40 percent want someone else.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, Hochul was at a 48 percent approval rating, while 42 percent disapprove. It's a slight improvement from the third quarter, while 47 percent approved and 43 percent disapproved, but not by much. Further, her approval rating has never hovered above 52 percent, from fourth quarter of 2021 and first and third quarters of 2022, when she had replaced now former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who himself may be looking for a political comeback, perhaps as New York City mayor if not governor again.
As the write-up noted [emphasis added]:
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s popularity has ticked up in recent months, but ahead of an expected re-election run the incumbent is among the most unpopular governors in the country, raising the specter that a rising red tide in the traditionally blue state could wipe the Democratic Party out in 2026.
According to Morning Consult’s latest approval rankings for America’s governors, 48% of New York voters approved of her job performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, while 42% disapproved. While these approval ratings represent an improvement from the second quarter of 2024, they’re well off her numbers from the third quarter of 2022, just before she last faced voters.
In a section highlighting how "Hochul’s approval ratings have worsened since her 2022 campaign," the write-up also mentioned:
Hochul, the state’s former lieutenant governor, first ascended to the governorship when Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) resigned amid scandal in 2021 with a 38% approval rating. Her decline in popularity in recent years mirrors national trends of Democratic erosion.
Hochul’s approval rating is in the red with Republican and independent New Yorkers, but is particularly dragged down by her relative weakness with young people, voters of color and voters of her own party.
When it comes to those demographics mentioned, which should be a strength for Democratic governors, not only do just 71 percent of Democrats approve of Hochul, but a not insignificant 19 percent disapprove. Just 31 percent of Independents approve of the governor's performance, while 51 percent disapprove. Twenty-one percent of Republicans approve, while 72 percent disapprove.
Just 44 percent of voters ages 18-34 approve of her performance, while 23 percent don't know or have no opinion, and 33 percent disapprove. The governor's numbers are even worse among older voters, as 50 percent of voters over 65 disapprove of her performance, while 48 percent approve.
Not only do more white voters disapprove of Hochul's performance than approve (48-46 percent), but black voters are the only demographic where a majority approve, and even then it's only 59 percent who do, while 24 percent disapprove and 17 percent are in that don't know/no opinion category. Only a plurality of Hispanic and other voters approve, at 49 percent and 42 percent, respectively. Thirty-percent of Hispanics and 38 percent of other voters still disapprove.
It's also interesting that women are more evenly split than men on Hochul's performance, with 45 percent saying they approve and 42 percent disapprove. There's also 13 percent in that don't know/no opinion category.
"According to our latest surveys, 71% of New York Democrats approve of Hochul’s job performance, including just 28% who do so strongly. Only one Democratic governor, Gov. Dan McKee of Rhode Island, is less popular among Democratic voters, at 63%," the write-up mentioned, highlighting another particularly unpopular Democratic governor. As we covered at the time in 2022, shortly before he won his election, McKee was considered the most unpopular governor by Morning Consult. He also narrowly won his primary, though he still managed to beat Republican Ashley Kalus in the general.
The write-up further mentioned how Hochul may be in trouble for 2026 if she runs again, especially with how she barely won in 2022 and how the country, including New York, has shifted to the right, leading to President-elect Donald Trump's win last November:
But it’s the political dynamics in New York that make Hochul’s standing so striking.
In the 2022 contest, every single county moved further to the right compared with the 2020 elections, according to The New York Times, as Republicans hammered Hochul and Democrats on issues such as crime and immigration.
If New York City voters are an example, things do not appear to be getting better. Our October survey of Big Apple residents found a majority saw crime (56%) and immigration (59%) as getting worse, not to mention the nearly 2 in 3 adults there who said the same of housing affordability.
...
In a state as Democratic-leaning and diverse as New York, Hochul’s re-election — and the slate of competitive congressional races under it — may put to the test whether voters general election voters will believe a rightward-lurch on issues like immigration and crime if she survives a primary, and the lasting power of the coalitional shift among young people and voters of color that helped fuel Donald Trump’s 2024 victory.
During a midterm election year like the one Hochul’s expected to face, she may be left to rely on voters punishing the party in charge of Washington to ultimately secure another term in Albany.
Morning Consult ranked governors up for reelection in 2026 by least popular to most popular, going by their disapproval rating. Hochul comes in fourth, with two Democrats ahead of her. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) has a 48-47 percent approval rating, while Gov. Tina Kotek has a 45-42 percent approval rating, and McKee has a 44-40 percent approval rating.
The write-up also mentioned Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) as a potential primary challenger, and sure enough he's been rather critical of the governor. That same day he shared a screenshot of the Morning Consult headline. He warned not only of how "Democrats are in grave danger of not only losing the governorship to a Republican for the first time in more than 20 years but also losing multiple Congressional seats."
While Hochul managed to beat Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022, it was thanks to Zeldin coming close to a win that many Republican Congressional candidates were able to win House seats, and thus control of the chamber, in what had otherwise been a disappointing midterm election year.
Kathy Hochul is the new Joe Biden.
— Ritchie Torres (@RitchieTorres) January 16, 2025
If Hochul is at the top of the ticket in 2026, we as Democrats are in grave danger of not only losing the governorship to a Republican for the first time in more than 20 years but also losing multiple Congressional seats. Hochul is a… pic.twitter.com/WirNiakr6C
A potential challenger for Hochul, or whomever else the Democrats nominate, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), has also weighed in about the governor, including ahead of her State of the State from Tuesday, and as it relates to her reelection prospects. "She is a feckless and failed governor who needs to be replaced in 2026," Lawler said hours before the governor's address this week.
Lawler specifically hit Hochul on affordability, as he has especially been doing when it comes to the congestion pricing plan Hochul put into effect earlier this month for New York City.
He later also spoke with Fox Business' "Mornings With Maria Bartiromo," where he shared he himself is "looking at it" when it comes to such a run for governor.
Kathy Hochul is spending and mismanaging New York into oblivion. Spending has gone up over $90 billion on her watch, cashless bail has been an unmitigated disaster, and she's failed time and again. pic.twitter.com/NgUpMKIzNH
— Mike Lawler (@lawler4ny) January 15, 2025
It's no secret that I'm looking at a run for Governor of New York State - Kathy Hochul is the most feckless, incompetent Governor in decades, and our state deserves better. pic.twitter.com/Nc7kIdnnrk
— Mike Lawler (@lawler4ny) January 17, 2025
Hochul did herself no favors with her State of the State with a beclowning dance performance that was put on by the New York Liberty's Timeless Torches, a dance group composed of those over 40. The performance is now even trending over X, as "Celebration or Controversy?"
Such a move has been mocked by those with other governor's offices, including Jeremy Redfern with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
I just wanted to go on the record to say that we did not book any dancers for @GovRonDeSantis’ State of the State address.
— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) January 17, 2025
I know this news is disappointing to some, but we believe FL’s budget must remain roughly half NY’s, even though FL has more people and better roads. https://t.co/OKq4DUDvb9
