Election Day is just over a week away, but it could be a little longer before we know the results. Polls have shown a close race, but former and potentially future President Donald Trump has increasingly closed the gap against Vice President Kamala Harris, and momentum continues to be on his side. It'll likely come down to a few swing states.
According to RealClearPolling, Trump has an overall lead of +0.9 for the battleground states. Several of those swing states have been in the news regarding when we might find out the results:
Georgia
According to RCP, Georgia is currently the best swing state for Trump, where he is leading Harris by +2.2. However, as Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger shared on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, the results could take a couple of days.
"But we also just put into law this year with SB-189 that all early votes and all early accepted ballots, they all will have to have their results reported by 8:00 p.m. That's 70 — maybe even 75 percent of all the vote totals will be reported no later than 8:00 p.m. on election night," Raffensperger offered. That still means there's 25-30 percent remaining.
While it will "absolutely not" take a week to tabulate the results, Raffensperger assured Brennan, overseas ballots could still take time. "What we will be waiting for is the overseas ballots that come in no later than Friday. And so those will then be the final numbers. And we'll just see if that makes a difference in the total vote totals," he explained.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says it will "absolutely not" take seven days to tabulate all the state's votes, which former President Donald Trump recently claimed. He tells @margbrennan that all of Georgia's early votes must be tabulated by 8 p.m. on Election… pic.twitter.com/ZxRjX8uUOt
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) October 20, 2024
Raffensperger spoke later in the week with Fox News' Bret Baier and mentioned that 70 percent. He did also tell Baier that "we'll have the results for what happens on Election Day, it'll be done by that night."
A piece from NewsNation referenced Drew McCoy, the president of Decision Desk HQ, regarding when results could be counted. "By McCoy’s estimation, Georgia and North Carolina could be called sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight on election night, which could set the stage for what happens in the rest of the country," the piece noted.
Arizona
This is another one of Trump's top states, where he leads by +1.5. It also looks to be the one with potentially the most consternation.
As Sarah covered earlier this week, Maricopa County officials are asking for "patience" while the notoriously election scandal-prone county potentially takes days or even weeks to count the results.
This month, 91.5 KJZZ put out an article on how "It could take 2 weeks to know election results in Arizona. Officials say that's normal," which really tried to downplay concerns:
It could take around two weeks to learn the results of some races in Arizona’s upcoming November elections, something election officials from around the state say is completely normal.
Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates said Arizona’s status as a swing state brings extra focus on how long it takes to count votes, even though many states take weeks to finalize election results.
Gates said he expects 95% of ballots in his county to be tabulated by the end of the week after the Nov. 5 election but said it takes an average of 10 to 13 days to finalize the count in Maricopa County, which became a hotbed of disproven voter fraud conspiracy theories in the wake of the 2020 election.
“It unfortunately does lead to people speculating about what might be going on,” Gates said. “But number one, I come back to this, I will 100 out of 100 times take accuracy over speed.”
Several factors can lead to those delays, including a rule in Arizona allowing voters to drop off early ballots on Election Day.
“That is a right that folks have in Arizona,” Gates said. “We anticipate anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 of these mail in ballots will be dropped off on Election Day.”
Maybe people are "speculating" because the process is so convoluted, and when it seems most of the rest of the world can conduct elections more efficiently? Perhaps that "extra focus" could be the frustration from years past, especially if issues from 2022 aren't fixed?
Reuters and NewsNation referenced Arizona in their coverage on when we might know the results of the election, particularly when it comes to the state's use of mail-in ballots.
In 2022, the governor's race and Senate race took days to call, with the Democrats in both races — Katie Hobbs and Mark Kelly, respectively — emerging victorious.
North Carolina
The next best performing state for Trump is North Carolina, where he's up by +0.8. Trump won the Tar Heel State in 2016 and 2020 and looks to be on track to win again in 2024.
That NewsNation piece referenced McCoy's sentiment that North Carolina could be called between 10 pm on election night and midnight.
Reuters mentioned the midnight timeline, but warned it could still take days. "If the election is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina may remain unclear for a week or more. Absentee ballots that arrive on Nov. 5, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are tallied during the 10-day canvass period that follows Election Day," the piece mentioned.
North Carolina, the home state of RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, has also been in the news for election integrity victories that the RNC has had over absentee ballots.
Nevada
Then there's Nevada, where Trump leads Harris by +0.7. Just like Arizona, mail-in ballots could again be the culprit for slow returns. Even Reuters referenced "slow vote counting in 2020."
Even more infuriating? The state accepts late-arriving mail ballots within four days, as Reuters mentioned.
In hopeful news, when it comes to a signal for other states to follow, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Friday regarding a Mississippi law that federal law mandates ballots be received by Election Day to count.
Pennsylvania
Speaking of Pennsylvania, the Keystone State is Trump's next best state, where he's up by +0.6 against Harris. If Harris had picked Gov. Josh Shapiro, the commonwealth's popular and moderate enough governor as her running mate, it likely wouldn't be as close.
But, with Shapiro not on the ticket, Pennsylvania is close. Not helping the anticipation is that in August, as Matt covered, the PA Department of State put out a post warning that the results might not be known that night due to mail-in ballots, and then added a lecturing tone to remind people it's not "'rigged.'"
Pennsylvanians won’t always know the final results of all races on election night. Any changes in results that occur as counties continue to count ballots are not evidence that an election is “rigged.” See the full explanation at https://t.co/viVtWSw4HL. pic.twitter.com/gbaDh8lJpX
— PA Department of State (@PAStateDept) August 8, 2024
County and state election officials have repeatedly asked PA’s legislature to allow processing to begin before Election Day – which other states, including Florida, allow.
— PA Department of State (@PAStateDept) August 12, 2024
Counting will always take time, but having this additional processing time would dramatically speed up…
As Secretary Schmidt recently said – again – about this needed change: “It is acutely frustrating to have a technical problem with a technical solution and that is non-partisan, non-political … and that issue having not been addressed in the last four years by our legislature.”…
— PA Department of State (@PAStateDept) August 12, 2024
As Matt pointed out about the thread above, it's "how conspiracy theories and questions about the election results begin[.]"
Michigan
This is a battleground state that could be one of the more challenging ones for Trump, though he still has an edge over Harris, by +0.2.
Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, as Leah covered earlier this week, got into it on X with Elon Musk about ineligible voters being removed from the rolls in time.
So you’re not removing them before the election?
— Ken Morin (@KenMorin111) October 21, 2024
Per your snippet here, those voters slated for removal can still vote in this election.
While on "Face the Nation," Benson shared how the race for her state had been called on the Wednesday after the election at 8:00 pm in 2020, and they're "tracking that again this year," though she's "optimistic" they may find out even earlier this year.
"I would estimate, end of the day on Wednesday, as the best guess on how we'll perform. But that said, we will always prioritize accuracy and security over efficiency," Benson shared.
Michigan SOS @JocelynBenson says she estimates the battleground state will have the results of this year's presidential race by the end of the day on Wednesday — the day after Election Day.
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) October 20, 2024
"With that said, we will always prioritize accuracy and security over efficiency," she… pic.twitter.com/udCHTjDW6a
Brennan also brought up Musk, feeling the need to mention politics by reminding that Musk "is a big supporter of Donald Trump." She then opened the door for Benson to rant about threats to democracy, asking, "What do you believe his intention is here? And how concerned are you that he's misleading voters?"
"One, we know adversaries to democracy right now are trying to create chaos and confusion and sow seeds of distrust around our very clear and legitimate and accurate and secure processes of running elections, not just in Michigan but around the country," Benson said. "So it's incumbent upon all of us to look to trusted sources of information like your local election official and use data to evaluate questions, as opposed to people who are running social media companies with particular agendas and who have a history in amplifying conspiracy theories and false information," she continued.
Wisconsin
This is another potentially tricky but winnable state for Trump, where he also leads by +0.2 over Harris.
Reuters made note of delays with mail-in ballots, as is the case with Pennsylvania:
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is among the few states that do not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, which means there can be a delay in reporting the results of those early votes.
In addition, many of the state's largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and tabulating. That can lead to significant batches of votes getting reported all at once in the early morning after polls close.
Not only is Trump up in the battleground states, but Harris' national lead is pretty much gone. It was +0.2 on Thursday after a poll from The Wall Street Journal came in. Then, she and Trump were tied on Friday thanks to the poll from The New York Times/Siena College, and now she's back with an edge of +0.1.
The Daily Signal's Tony Kinnett has been predicting that we may find out the results not so long after Election Day. After mentioning it on "The Tony Kinnett Cast" this week, he posted his theory of Wednesday at 1 pm, which also shows Trump winning 312 electoral votes to Harris' 226 votes.
For the record (updated to include map):
— Tony Kinnett (@TheTonus) October 25, 2024
✅Trump 312, Harris 226
✅Called by 1pm, Wed, Nov. 6
✅GOP Senate, 54/100
🃏Wildcard prediction: Virginia within 12,000 votes
(These barring any new groundbreaking scandal(s) we haven't seen yet.) pic.twitter.com/RWAf5Q8Kt7
