The bleak November election outlook for Democrats doesn't merely exist at the national level, but at the state level as well. There is perhaps no more illustrative example than a "Sunday Square Off" segment earlier this week from NBC 12.
During the segment, Democratic strategist Chad Campbell, who served as the Arizona House minority leader, from the start, admitted that "convention wisdom has this being a very bad year for Democrats, nationally," which he said they "also expect to trickle down ballot." He explained they're thus looking to change the district in a future election, effectively admitting they've given up on this year.
"Anybody who looks at the new maps knows Democrats cannot get the majority next year. I mean, I shouldn’t say can’t but it would be impossible, it would be nearly impossible," he went on to say. The show's anchor, Braham Resnik, reminded though that "can't is the same thing as impossible."
Resnik had also begun the segment by offering that "puzzled might be one word to describe the reaction to the Arizona Democratic Party's election tactics," over handling redistricting efforts there. Resnik went on to point out that "it also became clear that the Democratic Party isn't fielding enough candidates to have any shot at gaining the few seats they need to control the legislature."
This is a particularly embarrassing admission, considering that Democratic groups have been singing a different tune. Christina Polizzi, National Press Secretary of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), had called Arizona a "top target."
Arizona was also highlighted as part of the DLCC battleground list in a POLITICO piece from March of last year. Liberal groups such as The States Project and Forward Majority are also referenced in a CNN article last updated earlier this month about how they have hope for Arizona.
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DLCC President Jessica Post said last December, as quoted by The New York Times, that "We’re very cleareyed about what may happen out in the electorate,” she said, but she insisted that “if we run good races, we can win in tough territory." It's worth noting that that article, by Blake Hounshell, was titled "Democrats Say They Are Serious About State Elections. But Are They Too Late?"
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) is defending their majority in Arizona, as was highlighted in a memo from last month. Republicans currently have a trifecta in Arizona and control the state House 31-29.
"National liberal organizations like the DLCC may be confused why Democrats in one of their top target states are already ‘throwing in the towel,’ but it’s clear Democrats are on defense in Arizona because they are on the wrong side of every issue hardworking Arizonans care about," said RSLC National Press Secretary Stephanie Rivera. "Being in lockstep with Joe Biden and his failed liberal policies is a losing strategy and Arizona Democrats know that, which is why they are ‘already giving up’ on November’s elections."
In addition to the segment, Laurie Roberts last week wrote an op-ed for Arizona Republic, candidly titled "Democrats have already given up on winning the Arizona House this year. Genius plan," where she took issue with what others are saying, which is that Democrats are not offering enough qualified candidates, emphasizing it was an issue of "political malpractice."
As she began her piece:
With just over six months to go until the November election, Democrats have already given up any hope of seizing control of the Arizona Legislature.
Granted, it was always going to be a long shot, what with new political districts that favor Republicans, the GOP’s historical advantage in voter turnout and the usual midterm fate that befalls the party in charge in Washington.
But the Arizona Democratic Party has thrown in the towel even before this year’s legislative races have begun, not even bothering to field enough candidates to at least try to win a majority in the Arizona House.
Some Democrats are privately fuming.
“All hell is breaking loose in the Democratic Party right now … ,” one party insider told me. “Incompetence I can deal with. But stupidity just does not make sense.”
Roberts went on to offer "They best [Democrats] can do is tie, and that's if pigs fly," and also took issue with the idea that Campbell offered, who also spoke to her, which, again, is to wait until 2024 or 2026:
Democratic consultant Chad Campbell says the “single-shot” strategy makes sense in the long run. It gives Democrats a chance to get a foothold in those Republican leaning competitive districts in 2022, when Republicans have an inherent advantage, and then build on that in future years.
“It’s a strategic approach to changing a district over time, as opposed to going in with two candidates and losing both seats,” Campbell told me. “It can be counter intuitive but done correctly it can work and then you can start to change the political leanings of the district over a couple of cycles.”
So give up and hope for the best in 2024 or 2026?
The strategy of the party that in 2020 came oh so close to finally winning a seat at the table is to retreat, rendering Democratic legislators even more irrelevant than they already are?
What genius drew up this plan?
The NBC 12 "Sunday Square Off" segment is aptly titled "What is the Arizona Democratic Party thinking?" It notes that the "Arizona Democratic Party’s puzzling response to redistricting and apparent inability to mount a campaign to win the Legislature have many political observers wondering what the party’s thinking."
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