It's been covered for months, and it's a trend that doesn't look to be changing any time soon. Former President Donald Trump, should he run again in 2024, continues to have an edge against President Joe Biden. While Trump has not yet announced any formal plans, he has increasingly been teasing that a run is likely. Other people also think he will run in 2024.
A poll released on Thursday by Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows Trump with a plurality of support over Biden. Forty two percent of voters would vote for Trump in 2024, while just 38 percent would vote for Biden. Both candidates are down in support, with Trump down 2 percent and Biden 1 percent. The amount of undecided voters is up from 9 to 16 percent.
According to a write-up from the poll, with original emphasis:
Our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden, with 42% saying they would vote for Trump (down 2%) and 38% saying they would vote for Biden (down 1%), after weighting by likelihood to vote. Together with our polling from three weeks ago, this poll marks the second lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden that we have seen in our national polling, including polls conducted in advance of the 2020 Election. A further 16% say they don’t know how they would vote (up 9%).
Large majorities of 2020 Donald Trump voters (86%, down 3%) and Joe Biden voters (79%, up 3%) maintain that they would again vote for those respective candidates.
While this "[l]arge majorities of... voters" would vote for their candidate from 2020 again, it's worth noting that, even with the drop, Trump still has a 7 point edge against Biden.
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The poll surveyed 1,500 eligible voters in the United States and was conducted on December 5.
Other different polls that have asked such a question show that while not a majority, nevertheless a significant amount of voters have buyer's remorse and admit to feeling regret for having voting for Biden.
Earlier in the week, on Monday, Tal Axelrod reported for The Hill on a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey provided exclusively to the outlet.
Trump has close to a majority of support from respondents, with 48 percent saying they'd vote for him if the 2024 election were held today as a matchup against him and Biden, who 45 percent say they'd vote for. Eight percent are undecided.
The former president also polls higher among men by 50 to 43 percent and rural voters by 33 percent. Biden polled higher with urban voters by 20 percent and suburban voters by 4 percent. Women were evenly split, at 46 percent.
"The collapse of Biden has led to a surge for President Trump on all fronts both in the GOP primary and in a potential general election," said pollster Mark Penn, as quoted by Axelrod.
Results also indicated that Trump has a considerable lead against other Republican nominees. Trump has support from 67 percent of respondents, while former Vice-President Mike Pence has 9 percent and Gov. Romn DeSantis (R-FL) has 8 percent.
The poll was conducted November 30-December 1, with 1,989 registered voters.
Not only has Trump teased he'll be announcing soon that he will run, but Hillary Clinton does as well, who, as Leah reported on Thursday, made headlines for choking up as she read what would have been her 2016 victory speech, as released by the "Today" Show on Wednesday.
Clinton, as reported on Friday by Misty Severi with the Washington Examiner, said in a "Today" interview released on Friday that "if I were a betting person right now, I’d say Trump is going to run again." She went on to warn "but I want people to understand that this is a make-or-break point. Are we going to give in to all these lies and this disinformation and this organized effort to undermine our rule of law and our institutions or are we going to stand up to it?"
Those on the opposite side of the aisle, including those close with the former president, also predict he will run. In an exclusive interview last month to preview his book, "Do What You Said You Would Do: Fighting for Freedom in the Swamp," Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) told Townhall that he hopes and believe Trump will run again.
And, as Daniel Chaitin reported last Friday for the Washington Examiner, Sebastian Gorka is 99.9 percent sure that Trump will run in 2024. "There's only one thing that will stop him: If we don't crush the Democrats in the midterm elections next year. Because he can't be at the mercy of impeachment again. He has to have the House and the Senate behind him," Gorka said while on GB News.
Republicans are in a good position to take back at least one if not both of the chambers. As a matter of historical trend, the president's party tends to lose seats in the mid-term, and Democrats have a single digit majority in the House and only control the 50-50 Senate thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote. Biden's low approval ratings also look good for Republicans taking back control of Congress.
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