The 2026 midterms for the House and Senate will be battles. Republicans now have the financial edge for the first time in a long time. We’re not facing candidates with Nazi tattoos or rape allegations, but President Trump’s approval ratings need to improve, gas prices need to drop, and we’re entering another wave of airstrikes against Iran. The House GOP has a razor-thin majority, but the generic ballot isn’t looking good for Democrats, and even some election analysts are saying, as of now, we’re in territory where Republicans could keep the House.
But what about down-ballot races? State attorneys general races are just as important, and right now, the GOP is in a strong position to win these contests across the country. Like their counterparts in the House and Senate races, Democratic attorneys general candidates are facing image issues. The Republican Attorneys General Association’s recent memo showed that its front lines are well-maintained. Also, our guys in these races are outperforming and outpolling the ticket:
Arizona: The generic ballot in Arizona remains the closest in the country. Democrat Attorney General Kris Mayes, who only won by 270 votes in 2022, already has image problems with hard negatives exceeding 25%. Kris Mayes infamously said that Arizonans can use stand your ground laws to shoot ICE agents.
Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Attorney General Keith Ellison is the most vulnerable incumbent AG in the country. 45% of Minnesotans already have an unfavorable opinion of Ellison. He is the only remaining state officeholder to run for re-election, despite the rampant fraud that has taken place in the state. Keith Ellison narrowly leads largely unknown Republican nominee Ron Schutz – within the margin of error. Once voters are informed of any of Ellison’s policy positions, Schutz jumps to a lead beyond the margin of error.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Attorney General Josh Kaul remains largely unknown despite eight years in office. Republican nominee Eric Toney has outraised Kaul since announcing his candidacy. Polling suggests a clear path to victory for both Toney and the Republican Gubernatorial nominee Tom Tiffany. On the informed ballot, Eric Toney jumps to an eight-point lead against Kaul when voters learn about their backgrounds.
RAGA remains confident of victory, entering 2026 “with a stronger map, stronger candidates, and a stronger cash-on-hand position,” it said at the conclusion of this report.
State Attorney General races offer more offensive opportunities than conventional wisdom suggests — the opportunity to elect the largest freshman class in Republican Attorney General history. If Republican Attorney General candidates in open seats are properly resourced and defined early, 2026 can be a cycle in which Republican Attorneys General not only withstand the political environment but significantly outperform it, similar to 2019, when Republican Attorney General candidates went 3-0 while Republican Gubernatorial candidates went 1-2.
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