In Michigan, a controlled scientific experiment using sophisticated modeled data proves that even with concerns about the economy top of mind for most voters, one Republican Senate candidate in a battleground state is breaking through on messaging.
Former Congressman Mike Rogers, who is running for U.S. Senate in Michigan, has benefited from an outside group touting his message to working-class voters. According to a scientific test, that message is working. Specifically, it is helping to elevate his standing among those working-class voters who will likely decide this November’s general election.
The experiment was conducted by Grassroots Targeting, the same numbers gurus who ran the data program for President Trump’s campaign in 2024 when he carried Michigan. They tested advertising conducted by the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (GLCF), a SuperPAC that supports Mike Rogers. GLCF has recently run highly targeted advertising on connected TV, digital, cable, and broadcast platforms, aimed at specific audiences in Michigan they believed would be receptive to Rogers’ working-class appeal.
“We wanted to ensure that our approach to messaging and targeting voters was hitting the mark,” said GLCF President Andy Surabian. “There is no better way to do that to conduct an actual experiment using data science to see what works and what doesn’t.”
The GLCF ads tout Rogers’ bio as a former auto factory worker, as well as his agenda for Michigan’s working class, such as more home building, new workforce training, and creating new manufacturing jobs in Michigan. They also focus on Rogers stated goal of returning shop class in high schools to teach young people trade skills.
Grassroots Targeting Managing Director Tim Saler said the results of the experiment are definitive. “The data clearly shows that when voters are exposed to these messages, Mike Rogers enjoys significant lift in his image rating among key voter audiences.”
“In the 4 markets we surveyed that received advertising, Rogers’ image improved 6.6% with women voters, compared to the control market that did not. Among non-college educated voters it improved 4.5%, and among voters aged 45-54 it improved 39%. But perhaps the most eye-opening result was among the voters we consider ‘persuadable.’ These are voters who have not said they will support Rogers yet, but could if they believe in his message. Among those voters, Rogers image improved a whopping 13.1%.”
It is rare to see outside political groups conduct scientific experiments to test their internal messaging and targeting approaches to a campaign; rarer still to see it made public.
In a memo exclusively obtained by Townhall, Grassroots Targeting details how they surveyed voters in the top 5 media markets in Michigan before the advertising began, then surveyed those same markets again after the ads had run. Because the ads only ran in 4 markets – Flint, Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Traverse City – the fifth market, Detroit, became a scientific “control” to compare the results to.
“The supporters of GLCF want to know that their investment is being put to good use,” Surabian said. “The data is very clear that with proper funding, Mike Rogers will be the next US Senator from Michigan, and these modeled universes are our roadmap to making that a reality,” Surabian said.