A new poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn in the Senate race.
The Texas Tribune reported on a Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll showing Talarico leading Cornyn 44 percent to 41 percent. The Democrat is also leading Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent. However, both matchups are within the poll’s margin of error, so either way, the race might be close.
Talarico performs best with racial minorities, college-educated voters, and independents. He leads Corny with Black voters by 51 points and Paxton by 56 points. Among Latinos, Talarico leads Cornyn by 32 points and Paxton by 27 points.
Independents back Talarico 51 percent to 29 percent against Cornyn and 53 percent to 28 percent against Paxton.
But there are reasons to doubt these findings.
TPOR presents itself as a nonpartisan entity. However, Luke Warford, director of the organization, was a Democratic politician who ran for Texas Railroad Commission as the Democratic nominee in 2022.
The poll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from April 17 to 20, found Talarico leading Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%. The Austin Democrat leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a margin of five percentage points, 46% to 41%. The survey included…
— Texas_4_Trump-Kenny (@TexasTrump2024) April 28, 2026
Before this, Warford worked as chief strategy officer and director of voter expansion for the Texas Democratic Party. He also worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.
Under Warford’s leadership, TPOR devoted significant polling work to the 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) and Talarico. The organization produced detailed surveys and message-testing among likely Democratic primary voters.
In light of this, there is a good chance that these most recent findings are skewed to favor the Democratic candidate. No Democratic candidate has won statewide office in Texas since the 1980s. Still, Republicans will need to pour a lot of cash and effort into the Lone Star State if they don’t want the Democrats to flip one of Texas’ Senate seats blue.
Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) is directed by Luke Warford, a former statewide Democratic candidate (Texas Railroad Commission in 2022) and former Chief Strategy Officer of the Texas Democratic Party. This gives it clear Democratic ties, even as it partners with various…
— Harry R. Vonner (@HarryRVonner) April 28, 2026
The most recent polling in the Republican Senate primary shows a razor-thin margin between Cornyn and Paxton with multiple surveys giving varying results. A Fox 26 Houston report on a Coefficient poll conducted in mid-April showed Cornyn holding a 44 percent to 43 percent lead over Paxton with 13 percent undecided.
Another poll showed Paxton leading Cornyn 47 percent to 42 percent among likely GOP runoff voters with 12 percent undecided. An Emerson College poll had Cornyn narrowly leading Paxton 30 percent to 29 percent, with 37 percent undecided.