Tipsheet

DNI Tulsi Gabbard Provides the Senate Intelligence Committee With an Update on Operation Epic Fury

Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, briefed the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday on Operation Epic Fury, offering an update that discounted several claims circulated by those opposed to the Iran war over the past several weeks. 

In her opening testimony, she outlined how the operation has thus far weakened the Iranian regime, how ongoing economic pressure is likely to further strain it, what actions the regime may take following the completion of Operation Epic Fury, and why the effort was necessary despite the Trump administration’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities last summer.

"In the Middle East, conflict and instability will shape security, political, and economic dynamics in a variety of ways," Gabbard said. "The IC (Intelligence Community) assesses that Operation Epic Fury is advancing fundamental change in the region, that began with Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023, and continued with the 12-Day War last year, resulting in weakening Iran and its proxies."

The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options. Iran's strategic position has been significantly degraded.

"The U.S.-led maximum pressure campaign and snapback of European sanctions added additional pressure to an already bleak Iranian economy, resulting in mass protests earlier this year that Tehran suppressed by killing thousands of protesters," Gabbard continued. "Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as Iran's economy worsens."

"Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East. The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years-long effort to rebuild its military, missiles, and UAV forces," she said.

Prior to Operation Epic Fury, the IC assessed Iran was trying to recover from the severe damage to its nuclear infrastructure sustained during the 12-Day War, and continued to refuse to comply with its nuclear obligations with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), refusing them access to key facilities.

The Director of National Intelligence then went on to explain the threat posed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and their cooperation with one another. It is unclear, though, how Operation Epic Fury could affect cooperation with Iran, especially in the event of a significant regime change.

The IC assesses that China, Russia, and North Korea see the United States as a strategic competitor and potential adversary. Iran has long viewed the U.S. as an adversary and is engaged in active conflict with the U.S. as of today. These four countries, the IC assesses, are likely to continue their selective cooperation with each other, which could bolster their individual capabilities and threats to U.S. interests more broadly. However, currently these relationships are primarily bilateral, on selective issues, and depend on broader circumstances, divergent sovereign interests, and in some cases, concerns over directly confronting the United States. These factors, the IC assesses, are likely to constrain their relationships.