Islamic terrorist group al-Qaeda has grown 50 times larger than it was just before the 9/11 attacks, according to a United Nations report.
The organization has evolved from a small, centralized terrorist operation into a sweeping network of about 25,000 terrorists spread across the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, according to new intelligence compiled for the United Nations Security Council.
The group has reportedly capitalized on states with weak governments, local conflicts, and a declining focus on radical Islamic extremism in the West.
Intelligence teams told the U.N. that al-Qaeda militants are now spread across multiple areas rather than being concentrated in one place. The group has grown its presence in Yemen, Somalia, and the Sahel region of Africa. U.N. monitoring coordinator Colin Smith warned that the group has “not laid down their weapons” and “are still plotting” possible attacks in Western nations.
I write @UnHerd about the recent headlines saying Al-Qaeda is 50 times larger than it was on 9/11. There are serious problems with the statistics underlying this claim. And the implied condemnation of the War on Terror misses that it changed Al-Qaeda. https://t.co/DpQLVyRmKK
— Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) February 9, 2026
The U.N. explained that al-Qaeda was able to expand by pivoting from a rigid hierarchy to a network whose operatives embed themselves in local struggles and grievances. Affiliate organizations portray themselves as protectors of local communities while exploiting poverty and anger at corrupt governments.
These affiliates recruit disaffected young men as fighters, enticing them with salaries and protection rather than relying on a pure ideological appeal.
Another public execution video from the Al Qaeda days of the new Syrian Minister of Justice, Shadi Muhammad al-Waisi!
— Hamas Atrocities (@HamasAtrocities) January 5, 2025
Imagine the European leaders rushing to embrace the new Syrian government, just because they started wearing suits pic.twitter.com/TdXcmXquN4
Al-Qaeda’s transformation suggests the group has shifted from using lone, high-profile terrorist attacks to positioning itself as an insurgent force. This makes it harder for intelligence agencies to track and disrupt their operations. As it expands its presence in fragile states, it could grow into a force that could threaten Western interests by destabilizing various regions while rebuilding its capability to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States.
However, some have suggested the U.N.’s assessment might be overblown. Author Kyle Orton penned a piece for UnHerd in which he argued that the new figures “should be treated with skepticism” because defining which individuals belong to al-Qaeda has always been “purely down to interpretation.”
He argued that the Islamic State (ISIS) presents a much greater danger to the West than al-Qaeda and noted that ISIS’ mission of violence against the West “never fully abated” even after losing its caliphate in Iraq and other nations.