Tipsheet

This Supreme Court Case Could Be a Game-Changer for Future Elections

The Supreme Court will hear a case that could drastically transform election law.

The court agreed to hear Watson v. Republican National Committee on Monday. The lawsuit centers on whether federal law allows states to take mail-in ballots after Election Day.

From SCOTUSBlog:

The dispute began in 2024, when the RNC – along with the Mississippi Republican Party and two individuals – went to federal court to challenge the Mississippi law. Their case was later joined with a similar case brought by the Libertarian Party of Mississippi. 

A federal judge in Gulfport, Mississippi, upheld the law, rejecting the challengers’ contention that it conflicted with federal law. Senior U.S. District Judge Louis Guirola explained that, according to Supreme Court precedent, “Congress set a national election day to avoid the ‘evils’ of burdening citizens with multiple election days and of risking undue influence upon voters in one state from the announced tallies in states voting earlier. Neither of those concerns,” he concluded, “is raised by allowing a reasonable interval for ballots cast and postmarked by election day to arrive by mail.”  

The challengers appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, which reversed Guirola’s decision. It ruled that federal election law, which sets the Tuesday after the first Monday in November as the “election” day for federal offices, requires all ballots to be received by that day. The full 5th Circuit declined to rehear the case, over a dissent by five judges.

The Trump administration issued an executive order on March 25, 2025, to require all ballots to be submitted by Election Day. About 18 to 30 states and the District of Columbia currently allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted as long as they arrive within specified grace periods after Election Day.

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Republican Party, states will be required to eliminate their grace periods and reject any mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day. This would have to happen before the 2026 midterm elections.

Naturally, Democrats are probably going to claim this disenfranchises voters and somehow prevents Black people from casting their votes and blah blah blah.

However, the real reason Democrats are concerned about this is that they know allowing these grace periods typically works in their favor. Approximately 58 percent of Democratic voters cast their ballots by mail in the 2020 presidential election, compared to 29 percent of Republicans.

However, in recent years, more Republicans have begun voting by mail — likely because they realized the advantage Democrats have because of the practice.