What happened in New Jersey? I knew 250,000 residents fled the state since Republican Jack Citarelli’s almost-upset win against incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy in the last gubernatorial election. Momentum was swinging his way; he was clinching some wild endorsements from local Democrats and labor unions, only to get blown out 56/43 against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherill. This race seemed tighter; it’s the only one where the GOP supposedly had a shot. So, what gives?
Quantus Insights tweeted:
Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10.
By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast.
More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli.
We confirmed this again in late October: Sherrill +3 from a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters showing Republicans fired up and turning out. However, the Democrats were holding the edge and keeping a breakout from occurring. We rather easily detected potential for a +5 to +6 Sherrill victory despite our polling showing +3.
Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024. While our last poll did show black voters finally swinging her way. We had Ciatt at single digit support among black voters.
Then election night happened and the results stunned nearly everyone.
Exit polls, turnout, demographic margins, and the final numbers made little sense compared to virtually every public survey.
It wasn’t just us. 99% of pollsters missed it at similar scale.
Something unusual happened in New Jersey, and we’re still unpacking why.
Strangest swing map ever. pic.twitter.com/17ULmFB7ks
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 6, 2025
We were disappointed, and honestly, angry over our New Jersey polling.
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) November 6, 2025
Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10.
By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast.
More Republicans… https://t.co/jlzBMsh68E
BREAKING - Conservatives are now pointing to inconsistencies in the New Jersey gubernatorial race after nearly 500,000 new voters appeared from 2021 to 2025, more than double the state’s population growth over four years, with almost all of them going to Democrats. pic.twitter.com/TR9qxRePv0
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 6, 2025
No Voter ID in New Jersey.
— Mike Crispi (@MikeCrispi) November 6, 2025
No enforcement of ballot harvesting/ mail-ins in the inner cities.
The Mayor of Newark’s brother was paid 7 FIGURES for “political field operations.”
If Republicans want to win statewide going forward, they MUST tackle election integrity FIRST!
Also, did 500,000-plus Democrats magically appear, whereas they were dormant like cicadas in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 elections?
It certainly raises some eyebrows. That’s all I’m going to say about that right now.