Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) might just have what it takes to become New York’s first Republican governor in almost two decades — if she decides to run.
Stefanik has not yet indicated whether she plans to throw her hat in the ring, but if she did, she could prove to be a formidable contender, according to a new poll.
From The Hill:
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is leading incumbent New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the New York gubernatorial race, according to polling.
In a poll released Tuesday, the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, finds Stefanik getting 43 percent support compared to Hochul’s 42 percent — a statistical tie that still gives the House Republican a slight edge.
Nine percent of those surveyed said they support someone else, while 7 percent said they are “not sure.”
The results mark a major reversal from just a couple of months ago, when an August Siena College poll showed Hochul with a 14-point lead over Stefanik.
The two have targeted each other in recent remarks and ads, with the GOP representative slamming Hochul for endorsing New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. The same Manhattan Institute survey found Mamdani holding a commanding lead over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent.
“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule,” Bernadette Breslin, Stefanik’s campaign spokesperson, said in a statement.
“Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York,” she added.
🚨WOW! SHOCK New York governor 2026 poll finds Republicans have a chance at WINNING
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2025
🔴 Elise Stefanik: 43% (+1)
🔵 Kathy Hochul: 42%
🔴 Stefanik: 43% (+6)
🔵 Anthonio Delgado: 37%
Can Rep. Stefanik really flip New York red? 🔥
Manhattan Institute (R) | 10/22-26 | N=300RV pic.twitter.com/EHtkYJ717x
In a Sunday post on X, Stefanik slammed Hochul over her support for socialist New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, who is leading in the polls. She said Hochul “did more than bend the knee to the raging Antisemite, Defund the Police, Commie Mamdani” and “enthusiastically cheered with the jihadist terrorist sympathizer.”
The Worst Governor in America @KathyHochul did more than bend the knee to the raging Antisemite, Defund the Police, Commie Mamdani.
— Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) October 26, 2025
Hochul enthusiastically cheered with the jihadist terrorist sympathizer saying:
“Elect Zohran and we take back America!”
New Yorkers will never… pic.twitter.com/xO8monW7C6
Hochul’s latest approval ratings show improvement. A Siena Poll showed her job approval at 54 percent and her favorability at 45 percent in September. A Marist Poll put Hochul’s approval rating at 39 percent back in April.
As for Stefanik, recent polling is less favorable. Siena put her favorability at 21 percent and unfavorable rating at 34 percent in September. However, her name recognition is not as high as Hochul’s. About four in ten New Yorkers don’t know her or have no opinion about her.
This could suggest that the numbers might be skewed and could change if she decided to run for governor. If she were to announce her candidacy, and her campaign got the word out about her, more recognition could possibly boost her ratings among New Yorkers — especially if Hochul’s numbers begin to fall again.
It would be a tough battle for Stefanik. But someone like her might just be able to pull it off if the stars align the right way.