We're still three years away from the 2028 Presidential election, but polls have been circulating for months, comparing hypothetical matchups between Democratic Party primary candidates and the general election.
All of these polls should be taken with huge grains of salt. Not only is 2028 a long time away in political terms, but these polls are about as reliable as that kitchen gadget you ordered from Temu.
That being said, it's fun to watch what voters are thinking now, especially in light of this poll from New Hampshire. It says Pete Buttigieg, the failed former Transportation Secretary and mayor of some Indiana town, is leading the Democrats for 2028.
Pete Buttigieg leads Democratic pack in early 2028 New Hampshire poll https://t.co/9WBA5LTy0r pic.twitter.com/PmL70UMezJ
— New York Post (@nypost) October 28, 2025
Here's more from the New York Post:
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s early presidential frontrunner in New Hampshire, topping California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and former Vice President Kamala Harris in a new poll.
With 19% support, Buttigieg leads Newsom – his closest opponent – by 4 percentage points, according to the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll, released Monday.
The only other Democrats in double-digits were Ocasio-Cortez (14%) and Harris (11%).
The Democratic Party's bench is very, very shallow.
And we have to point out this very salient fact: Pete Buttigieg does not poll well with Black voters. In June, Emerson College Polling released a poll showing Buttigieg in the lead but polling at zero percent among Black voters. Every other Democrat in the poll did better.
New Hampshire, for what it's worth, has a population that's 88.9 percent White, and just 1.5 percent of the state population is Black. So while Buttigieg does well with White voters, he does not with a much-needed electoral demographic. The DNC once tried to strip New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation primary status, citing those demographics and concerns that the state isn't "diverse" enough (despite the fact that the state has voted for the Democratic candidate every election since 2004).
According to the Roper Center, Democrats need 85 to 90 percent of the Black vote to win elections. Joe Biden earned between 87 and 91 percent in 2020; Kamala Harris did worse in 2024, earning 86 to 89 percent, and less than 80 percent among Black men.
Kamala Harris also admitted she didn't pick Buttigieg to be her running mate because she felt it would be too difficult for voters to accept a Black woman and a gay man on the same ticket. That's very telling, of course, and even MSNBC's Rachel Maddow said it was "hard to hear."