If Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate in the New York City gubernatorial race were to drop out, former Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, and current frontrunner and democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani would be nearly dead even in the race, according to new polling.
A report by Gotham Polling and the New York York City AARP, released on October 16, found that 44.6 percent of voters would choose Zohran Mamdani on election day, while 40.7 percent would support Cuomo. If Sliwa were to remain a candidate, Mamdani would maintain 43.2 percent, Cuomo 28.9 percent, and Sliwa trailing with 19.4 percent.
New @AARPNY / @GothamPolling poll: Mamdani leads NYC’s mayoral race — 43% to Cuomo’s 29%. In a head-to-head, Mamdani’s edge narrows within the margin of error. Nearly 8 in 10 undecided voters are 50+, giving older NYers the power to decide. https://t.co/zxHIijS3oG #Election2025
— aarpny (@AARPNY) October 20, 2025
However, much of the city's undetermined voters are age 50 or older, which could be a decisive demographic come election day, as mainly younger New Yorkers overwhelmingly support Mamdani.
“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.” Stephen Graves, the president of Gotham Polling & Analytics said.
Though the support for Mamdani could still be underestimated, as the statistics relied on in the analysis use 2021 general election demographics.
Both Sliwa and Cuomo have adamantly refused to drop out of the race.
The Gotham poll questioned 1,040 likely voters over two days, and found that across each of the five boroughs and all age demographics, cost of living was their primary concern. While less than half of voters, 48.6 percent said it was safety and 38.9 percent said it was housing affordability.