Tipsheet

Why Dems Face Annihilation in the South

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 16, 2025 6:55 AM

The Supreme Court is considering whether to gut a key provision in the Voting Rights Act. Democrats are nervous because, if the Court strikes it down, coupled with Republican governors redrawing maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, they could be wiped out in the South. 

Of course, the Times tries to lessen the impact, adding that the full effect of the upcoming ruling, should it go against liberals, might not be fully felt until after 2026, but it’s still going to be a sledgehammer to the face.  The provision centers on whether race should be considered when drawing legislative districts (via NYT): 

Republicans have been redrawing congressional districts this year at President Trump’s behest, but so far it hasn’t seemed to be enough to deny Democrats a reasonable path to control of the House of Representatives. 

That might change if the Supreme Court strikes down Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais, a case the court hears Wednesday. 

Without Section 2, which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South. 

Republicans may not eliminate every Democratic-leaning district that they technically could (more on why later), but the party’s aggressive mid-cycle redistricting suggests they would eliminate enough to obtain a significant structural advantage. It’s not clear whether this would occur by next year’s midterm elections, with a court ruling likely next summer, but the new seats would eventually be enough to make Republicans favored to win the House even if they lost the popular vote by a wide margin. 

With those new seats added to the ones Republicans already seem poised to gain, the House would not be competitive in most election years. 

[…] 

It’s hard to say exactly how many districts Republicans would eliminate if Section 2 falls. It’s also hard to say whether Republicans would be able to eliminate those districts before next year’s midterms; the Supreme Court’s decision is likely to come after many state primaries. The full fallout from the decision might not come until 2028 or even after the next census in 2030. 

But even on the lower end of the estimate, Republicans will probably eliminate around a half-dozen districts: the majority Black districts in otherwise overwhelmingly Republican states and regions of the Deep South. In these reliably red states, Republicans could eliminate every Democratic-held majority-minority district while ensuring that the new districts remain relatively compact and overwhelmingly Republican. 

So, a couple of things. One, Gavin Newsom looks really stupid with all the chest beating regarding changing California’s maps since the GOP wins a redistricting war. Hands down. Two, this must happen. The Democrats are going to hobble this administration and engulf us yet again in a circus of fake hearings. Another impeachment push is not out of the question, too. We still have a way to go before 2026, but every GOP governor should redraw their maps, gerrymandering concerns be damned. We both do it. We have the advantage, and it should be maximized.