Tipsheet

New Study Shows 'Trans Identification' Among Youth Is in a Freefall

Amy Curtis
Amy Curtis  |  October 14, 2025 4:30 PM

For years, those who objected to trans ideology and radical trans activism warned that the sudden explosion of "trans identifying" kids was really a social contagion. Being "trans" was the latest political and social fad -- often pushed on kids by celebrities, politicians, and educators -- and many of them were not actually suffering from gender dysphoria.

The Left insisted we were just being bigots and that we were doing harm to youth by denying their "trans identities" and "true selves." They told us -- and many concerned parents -- that "trans" kids would commit suicide if we didn't get them dangerous puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and "gender affirming" surgery that left kids mutilated, sexually dysfunctional, and sterile.

Turns out, we were right all along. New data show that trans identification among young people is in a free fall:

Meanwhile, gay and lesbian identities has remained steady while heterosexuality has increased.

Among incoming freshmen, the rate of "trans and queer" students was less than the senior class, an inverse of just a few short years ago.

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It's very likely that the non-conformity will continue to fall.

The big question is: why? Why the sudden reversal?

It's not from a shift to religion or conservatism.

There are some answers in our improved mental health care.

A big factor was the pandemic.

Which makes sense. People were stuck at home, isolated from seeing loved ones in person, and resorted to being perpetually online in the name of "safety."

This is just another bit of evidence that the COVID lockdowns did far more harm than good.

Letting people work and socialize like normal helps improve mental health. Imagine that.

It was always a social contagion.

Here's more from Kaufmann:

The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), which conducts a large annual survey of US undergraduates, polled over 60,000 students in 2025. My analysis of the raw data shows that in that year, just 3.6% of respondents identified as a gender other than male or female. By comparison, the figure was 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in both 2022 and 2023. In other words, the share of trans-identified students has effectively halved in just two years.

This trend is especially marked in elite institutions. Andover Phillips Academy in suburban Boston surveys over three-quarters of its students annually. In 2023, 9.2% identified as neither male nor female. This year, that number has crashed to just 3%. A similar story emerges at Brown University: 5% of students identified as non-binary in 2022 and 2023, but by 2025 that share had dropped to 2.6%.

Some wondered if the graph instead showed a decline in nonbinary identification.

And Kaufmann responded:

The trans agenda is extremely homophobic, because it requires often gays and lesbians who don't adhere to rigid gender stereotypes to change their bodies in order to conform to those stereotypes. It's the ultimate form of conversion therapy, which is something the Left hates.

So we can take this study with a small grain of salt, depending on how trans individuals answered the question. That being said, it's a glimmer of hope.

But the next stages of this are going to be even harder. Society will have to deal with the fallout of "transitioning" perfectly healthy young men and women and the irreversible harm done to their bodies.