Tipsheet

Could Trump's Peace Deal Break the Stalemate in Gaza?

For the first time since Hamas slaughtered Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, there appears to be genuine optimism that the War in Gaza might be coming to a close.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday signaled that Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of his peace plan. In a post on Truth Social, the president explained, “This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.”

Many are lauding this development as a significant first step toward peace in the region — and rightly so. However, it is worth noting that the two parties are not quite out of the woods just yet.

Trump’s peace plan outlines a series of conditions that must be met in order to achieve a longstanding ceasefire. It involves the return of all the remaining hostages in Gaza, along with Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners. Hamas would have to give up its power over the Gaza Strip while a technocratic Palestinian government is put into place.

The terrorist group has balked at this demand and rejected the idea of disarming and giving up its control over the region. Its leaders vowed that it will not lay down its weapons until Israel ends its occupation and a Palestinian state is recognized. 

This isn’t going to happen. There is no way the US or Israel will recognize a Palestinian state — especially if Hamas still exists. A peace deal would depend on Hamas’ willingness to relinquish most, if not all, of its influence in the region. So far, they appear determined to assert their governing role even though the organization has been severely decimated by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).

Israel’s leadership has made it clear that any peace agreement must involve Hamas no longer being the governing authority in Gaza, which creates a deadlock that will be difficult to overcome. If this issue persists, the peace deal likely won’t last long.

The only path forward would be for Hamas to lose power — either by giving it up or by Israel wiping it out. International pressure could play a significant part here. It would have to be clear that the global community is not willing to see Hamas continue ruling Gaza and that the only alternative is annihilation. At most, the organization can only hope for a drastically reduced influence that allows for it to exist without actually wielding the level of power it previously enjoyed.

Still, the initial signs are promising. The fact that Hamas agreed to the first phase of the agreement shows that they are more willing to give concessions as long as they do not have to fear further attacks from the IDF. Perhaps there can be enough pressure from the US and other nations over the coming months to get Hamas to see the futility in trying to hold on. Otherwise, it is probable that the bombs will begin dropping once again.