See, Democrats, it’s not a racial thing, a woman thing. If the candidate sucks, your base isn’t going to get amped for him or her. Kamala Harris lost because she was an abjectly terrible candidate. It wasn’t racism, sexism, or misogyny. She was able to cobble together a $1 billion-plus war chest overnight. No one who isn’t mentally ill believes that, so what do we call Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ)? Is she the white Kamala?
In some ways, she is, because she could be blowing this gubernatorial race in New Jersey. It’s one of those gimme states for Democrats, but if the candidate is trash, don’t expect much. One red flag for Democrats regarding gauging whether your candidate is sub-par is how they fare with base voters, and Mikie is struggling mightily with black voters in the state (via NY Post):
New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial contender Rep. Mikie Sherrill is struggling to maintain support from black voters — a crucial group who could determine the next leader of the Garden State.
A staggering 15% of black voters were still undecided in the high-stakes governor’s race, according to a recent Quantus Insights poll, which noted she was underperforming with the core bloc that is typically loyal to Democrats and has been paramount to Democratic victories in past cycles.
In Newark, where nearly half of the population is black and less than one-quarter is white, many residents didn’t even know who she was or seemed too disillusioned by politics to vote.
[…]
New Jersey is one of the most diverse states in the country, with about 22% of its population Hispanic, 12% black and 10% Asian, according to the Census.
While black voters and Hispanic voters have historically leaned left, Henry De Koninck, a Democratic campaign ad strategist, observed there is a “nationwide realignment” happening.
“There’s really a nationwide realignment going on in terms of the percentage of support that Democrats are seeing from working-class and blue-collar voters, and particularly Hispanic and even African American voters,” he told The Post.
[…]
Oscar James II, who served on the Newark City Council from 2006 to 2010, said Sherrill’s message just isn’t resonating with black voters.
James penned a scathing op-ed in August titled, “I’m a Black NJ Democrat. This is why I can’t support Mikie Sherrill for governor.”
Former Dem Newark City councilman says he can’t back Rep. Mikie Sherrill in NJ governor’s race
“Especially in the black community that I’ve seen her with, she goes in with the politicians and the Democratic and the Democratic chairs,” James explained to The Post.
“But everybody who the working people who are in these African American communities, in these black communities, they’re not at those events. They’re not the people showing up there. The everyday voters aren’t the ones.”
That’s brutal. And Mikie has shown that she doesn’t possess the political skills to execute this nuanced play, which deviates significantly from the traditional Democratic playbook. White and now non-white working-class voters are leaning Republican. Again, the GOP is a multi-racial, working-class party now. Democrats thus far have not adapted to this change, which is that the GOP is the inheritor of the Obama coalition.
Sherrill dealt with bad press over her not being able to walk with her graduating class at Annapolis due to a cheating scandal. It’s relevant since she’s made her military service a cornerstone of her career in public life. She couldn’t condemn a killer of a New Jersey State Trooper, and she played dumb on how she got $7 million richer when she got elected to Congress.
Not doing well with black voters is the death knell for most Democratic campaigns. We’ll see what happens next month.
Key here is WHERE the GOP enthusiasm spiked -- working class and ethnic GOP strongholds. https://t.co/t9YkE6YvfK
— Robert Barnes (@barnes_law) October 7, 2025