Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is proving once again that the Lone Star State’s voters are no fans of the D.C. political playbook. According to a recent Emerson poll of 1,000 registered Texas voters, Paxton would defeat the expected Democrat nominee, Colin Allred, by a solid five-point margin, 46 percent to 41 percent. This polling data throws cold water on the narrative pushed by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and his Washington allies, who have been sowing doubts about Paxton’s electability in a bid to clear the path for Cornyn’s Senate reelection campaign.
Cornyn's team has banked heavily on painting Paxton as a controversial, vulnerable candidate, hoping to convince voters that only the establishment-friendly Cornyn can beat Democrats in Texas. But the Emerson poll suggests voters are unimpressed by that Washington spin. It shows Paxton is not just competitive, he’s the frontrunner against the Democrat Allred, who Democrats once touted as the candidate to finally take down conservatives in Texas after Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) 2020 victory.
In that race, Allred received a surge of national attention and funding. Despite those high hopes, Cruz crushed Allred by nearly ten points. Now, with Paxton—a proven conservative fighter who stands firmly for Texas values—set to take on Allred, the Democratic narrative is again at risk of collapsing.
Meanwhile, Cornyn’s own polling tells a less optimistic story. Another Emerson poll with a smaller sample size (and thus more prone to error) showed Cornyn leading Paxton by only a single point, with a staggering 37 percent of voters undecided. More strikingly, multiple polls throughout the year have indicated Cornyn trailing Paxton by double digits, even one sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund aligned with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
The poll suggests that Texas voters are rejecting the tired Washington insider model exemplified by Cornyn, favoring a bold conservative like Paxton who fights for the state’s sovereignty and principles.
As Texans look ahead to 2024, the choice couldn’t be clearer. Paxton offers genuine conservative leadership and a stronger chance to defeat Democrats like Allred, who continue to fall short despite massive financial backing and national hype.