Tipsheet

Essential: GOP Going on Offense Over 'Big Beautiful' New Law, Unanimously Opposed by Democrats

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  July 16, 2025 12:01 PM

We've defended and supported President Trump and Congressional Republicans' so-called 'big beautiful bill' for many months, leading up to its passage just before the White House's Independence Day deadline.  Given how minuscule the GOP's majorities are in both houses, this success is a real testament to the leaders who shepherded the party through a precarious process, as well as their teams.  It was a high wire act from the jump, but they got the job done, without a vote to spare in either chamber.  I was off when final passage was achieved, and when the president's signature made it the law of the land, but I posted these thoughts on Twitter/X at the time -- in case you missed it:

Congratulations to Congressional Republicans for approving this bill. As a result, American families and businesses will avoid crushing, automatic tax hikes at the end of the year. Stability and certainty. Medicaid will be strengthened for the truly vulnerable, while able-bodied working-age people will face minimal work/volunteer/schooling requirements to receive taxpayer-funded coverage through the program. Our immigration enforcement will be enhanced dramatically. And American energy will be unleashed in some important ways. Every Democrat in Congress voted against all of this. Just as every Democrat in Congress opposed the 2017 tax law, making hysterical predictions that were disproven by reality. There are problems with the bill that I dislike. It’s not some magical panacea. I also wish either party were serious about mathematically necessary reforms to Medicare and Social Security for future seniors. 

That sort of reality check feels distant and remote. Look at how even modest tweaks to Medicaid (with spending still INCREASING) have been demagogued and reported on. Despite flaws and shortcomings, I’m glad the bill passed. The automatic tax hike across every income group had to be stopped. I’m really impressed with how President Trump, VP Vance, Speaker Johnson, Leader Thune (and their teams) pulled this off. It was hardly a guarantee, given the microscopic margins in both chambers & the various factions. Democrats would have preferred devastating tax increases and a weaker economy, for political reasons. I’m glad their opposition failed. And now POTUS will sign this signature legislation into law on the Fourth of July — the very deadline he imposed.

As I noted, and other supporters have conceded, there are some drawbacks to this law. It contains elements that I oppose, like the SALT subsidies to high-tax blue states. Also as stated, I fear there is no political appetite in Washington to reform the enormous entitlement programs that have us on an unsustainable path to fiscal ruin.  But given the law's main feature of preventing what was going to be an automatic, crushing, across-the-board tax increase on families and businesses, it deserved to pass. That's especially true with tariff and inflation uncertainty moving forward; Americans have been through more than enough pain already over the last several years.  The positive steps on immigration enforcement and energy production are also welcome, as are the very modest steps on Medicaid.  Democrats have said that these "cuts" (again, Medicaid spending increases under this law) will be devastating and cruel, while waving away concerns about illegal immigrants receiving taxpayer-funded benefits -- and offering very little coherent case against asking able-bodied working-age adults to work, volunteer or study approximately 20 hours per week in order to receive healthcare coverage funded by hard-working taxpayers.  

They've also refused to acknowledge that by culling ineligible illegal immigrants from the Medicaid rolls, and transitioning people who should be working into work, those outcomes will make Medicaid resources more available for the vulnerable American populations for whom the program was designed in the first place.  Instead, they pretend the illegal immigrants issue isn't real, and that less-wealthy people are too stupid to fill out paperwork to receive benefits.  A few responses on those fronts:


As for the bolded portions of the excerpt above, Democrats believe they will hang this vote like an anvil around the necks of Republicans in the midterms.  But the GOP is gearing up to have that fight.  Every single Democrat in Congress (including ones who admit they support the vast majority of what was in the bill they voted against) decided that American families deserved a bruising tax increase at the end of the year.  This spot the party is running is a positive one, highlighting accomplishments in the law that benefit Americans:

 

More of this sort of messaging -- consistently -- will be important, as will negative ads against Democrats, highlighting the unpopular and harmful stances their unanimous 'no' votes signified.  The GOP will need to take the lead on that case, but outside groups that favored the 'Big Beautiful Bill' (like my friends at Americans for Prosperity) are also pledging to come in with air support and grassroots help to reward members who helped pass it. I think Republicans have the better of the argument.  That not be sufficient to save one or both of their majorities next fall, considering how the historical trends are decidedly against them, but it helps gives them a fighting chance.  So does this:

Recommended

Is This Trump’s Reasoning Behind His Handling of the Epstein Files? Matt Vespa
AG Pam Bondi Fires James Comey's Daughter Matt Vespa


Of course, all the money in the world won't save Republicans next year if Americans aren't feeling better about the economy, and if President Trump is unpopular (though Democrats largely survived both headwinds in 2022, for various reasons).  On that front, I'll leave you with a few recent data points: