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So, What to Make About Elon Musk's Threat for a New Political Party?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  July 03, 2025 6:30 PM

After several hours of tricks from Democrats, President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) passed in the Senate on Tuesday and the House earlier on Thursday, sure enough meeting the July 4 deadline. In the midst of the debate on the bill has been a falling out of sorts between Trump and Elon Musk, including and especially over the OBBB. Musk has even threatened to form a third party due to his opposition to the megabill. Now that it's achieved final passage and Trump is going to sign it into law, what does that mean for Musk?

Although Musk has been active on X on Thursday, usually in the form of reposts and replies to other users, it doesn't appear he's said anything about OBBB.

On Monday, the same day a vote-a-rama was taking place in the Senate, which ultimately lasted 27-hours before the bill passed the chamber thanks to a tiebreaking vote from Vice President JD Vance, Musk referred to the bill as "insane" and noted that if it passed, "The America Party will be formed the next day." That will bring us to the 4th of July holiday.

"Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE," he added.

This is not the only time that Musk has posted about such a third party in a country governed by a two-party system. Weeks before, on June 5, he conducted a poll about forming such a party.

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There were more than 5.6 million votes cast in total, with 80.4 percent saying that there should indeed be another party, which Musk's poll described as one "that actually represents the 80% in the middle?"

As the world's richest person, funding wouldn't be an issue. But can a nation with a two-party system really add a third party to it? The Washington Post explored such options on Wednesday morning, acknowledging, "Musk vows to start a third party. Funding’s no issue, but there are others."

The piece discussed the following factors:

There’s no doubt that the richest man in the world could make a sizable impact at a time of widespread distrust of the political system and other democratic institutions. But his threat this week to start a third major political party has been met with widespread skepticism, as critics pointed to numerous failed bids over decades — including by lesser business titans — to disrupt America’s two-party system.

Musk’s challenges go far beyond the fraught history of third-party attempts. His business empire is struggling in the wake of his aggressive foray into politics. His clash with Trump and his costly and unsuccessful effort to elect a Wisconsin Supreme Court judge have eroded his political capital. And his popularity plummeted as the U.S. DOGE Service, the cost-cutting effort he oversaw, upended the federal government, further exposing Americans to his polarizing persona and ideas.

Even some of Musk’s own supporters have expressed doubts about the direction he now plans to take, preferring that he stay focused on the business ideas that fueled his net worth of roughly $400 billion.

But as his improbable bid to buy Twitter and front-and-center role in the 2024 election showed, Musk has defied expectations before. If nothing else, he could make life difficult for lawmakers he says have reneged on their promise to cut spending.

...

Musk’s decision to cast himself as a potential third-party leader raises questions about his political vision. It has just been in the last few years that he has evolved from Democratic-leaning Trump critic to staunchly Republican Trump acolyte.

Trump allies mocked his latest incarnation.

“I think it’s the ketamine talking in the middle of the night,” said Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin, referring to media reports about Musk’s drug use that he has denied. “Trump is the Republican Party right now. He is the conservative movement. There’s not a hankering for a third party with Elon Musk.”

...

History shows that third-party candidates are rarely victorious. Ross Perot, one of the most successful independent candidates for president in American history, received about 19 percent of the popular vote and no electoral college votes.

“Third parties are traditionally spoilers or wasted votes,” said Lee Drutman, senior fellow at the New America think tank. “But if Musk’s goal is to cause chaos and make a point and disrupt, it gets a lot easier.”

...

A person who has served as a sounding board for Musk, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, questioned Musk’s ultimate strategy in undermining a party he had hoisted to victory beyond wanting “to be in the driver’s seat.”

“I agree our government is broken, but it’s a tougher problem to fix than landing a rocket,” the person said.

Putting pollster Jim McLaughlin's comments about Musk's rumored drug use aside, which he has indeed denied and also posted about with his toxicology report, the pollster makes an interesting point about Trump, the movement, and who this party appeals to.

It's also worth wondering who this third party would help, or potentially hurt. Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal, addressed that in his daily takes for Wednesday, calling it "Hopium" as he linked to an article from The Telegraph. As it turns out, the party would actually hurt Democrats more than Republicans, as Buchanan offered.

"In July '22, we had the Independent in the Oregon Gov race at 22%; she finished at 9%. The Republican finished down only 3 points to the Democrat, half the margin the Dem won by in 2018. 3rd parties fizzle and hurt Dems...so bring it on," he explained.

Although Democrat Tina Kotek is indeed the governor of Oregon, and one of the least popular governors in the country, she only won the bright blue state with 47 percent of the vote, while Republican Christine Drazan earned 43.5 percent. Betsy Johnson, who was a former Democrat running as an independent, took in 8.6 percent of the vote. The race had even been considered a "Toss-Up" in the months before.

Another name making news over his opposition to the bill and for drawing Trump's ire is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). The congressman voted against the bill back in May and on Thursday. He also initially voted in favor of proceeding to debate late on Wednesday night, before changing his vote, though Republicans still made it across the finish line. While Trump has called for a primary challenger, Musk is looking to help him out, and he and the congressman have interacted on X. 

"You're awesome," Musk wrote in reply on Tuesday morning as Massie shared coverage from Fox News of Musk saying he'll donate to the congressman.

If that's indeed the case, will it really make a difference when it comes to Musk's money up against Trump's track record with endorsements? CNN's Harry Enten discussed earlier this week how Trump-endorsed candidates, even those running against incumbents, almost always win. The "worst" they've done was in 2022, and 95 percent of these candidates at the congressional and gubernatorial level still won. In 2020, the numbers were at 98 percent and 96 percent in 2024.

Time will tell who prevails. The primary in Kentucky is May 19, 2026.