Tipsheet

President Trump's Masterstroke

On October 7, 2023, the Israelis were caught napping.  Perhaps overconfident after multiple decisive wins in defensive wars since the modern Jewish state's inception -- and maybe internalizing a false sense of security, thanks to the Iron Dome shield -- they were shocked as Hamas terrorists invaded their territory, slaughtering nearly 1,200 people and taking hundreds of hostages.  That vicious attack was designed to derail Israeli-Saudi peace negotiations.  It was funded, supported, planned and green-lit by the Iranian regime.  Ever since that historic failure by Israel's security apparatus, the tide has turned.  Dramatically.  The Israelis have decimated Hamas in Gaza, ignoring bleating from much of the useless, cowardly (and worse) 'international community,' with determination to finish off the terror group on their border.  They've also decapitated and crippled Hezbollah to their north, in Lebanon.  This feat included the ingenious pager operation, a dramatic neutralization of enemy weapons systems, and the liquidation of Hezbollah's leader.  It became quite clear how thoroughly Israeli intelligence had penetrated the terror group, bringing Iran's top terror proxy army to its knees. Lebanon is transformed.

And now, the main event.  The stunning successes against Hezbollah turned out to be a mere appetizer, compared to the main course of crushing the Iranian regime.  Israel exploited Iran's unsuccessful direct attacks  over the last few years to take out much of the regime's air defense capability.  This was an essential component to making last week's dramatic move, dealing a string of crushing blows to Iran's military and intelligence leadership, as well as the regime's world-threatening nuclear program.  Iran's chain of command is obliterated.  Those top officials who haven't yet been killed are reportedly seeking to flee the country. Multiple nuclear sites have been bombed. Major nuclear scientists on Israel's target list has reportedly been eliminated.  With the Israeli Air Force establishing airspace dominance over Iran (a secret emergency meeting of Iran's Air Force command was identified, located, and taken out by Israel), the regime is effectively defenseless.  Israel's operation will continue until they choose to stop.  Much like the world witnessed in the Hezbollah decapitation, it's now obvious how deeply Israeli intelligence had burrowed into Iran's regime and territory.  Some of Israel's initial strikes against Iran came from inside Iran.  Extraordinary.

Just before the attacks commenced, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slipped a prayer into a crack in the Western Wall.  He scribbled this note with full knowledge that Operation Rising Lion was about to begin.  The name of the plan is also likely a nod to Iran's pre-regime flag, which was emblazoned with a lion.  This almost seems like a scene out of a spy novel or an action film.  But it's real.  And what ensued is said to have exceeded the Israelis' wildest expectations:


A crucial component to this sweeping success was the element of surprise.  The Israelis engaged in deception and subterfuge of their own, of course, but the President of the United States played an integral role, as well.  While his administration made notable moves in the Middle East to protect American lives, Donald Trump sent every other signal that even if an Israeli attack were to occur at some point, it wasn't imminent.  He prominently went to the theater.  His Defense Secretary very publicly attended a baseball game.  His envoy sounded committed to a new round of pending negotiations with Iran.  Trump himself stressed his desire to resolve the Iran nuclear problem diplomatically.  The America-hating and American-killing regime was fooled.  They dismissed repositioning of resources and upgraded security protocols in the region as grandstanding ahead of yet more talks.  They were wrong.  In the first hours of Israel's assault, some observers wondered if Netanyahu and the Israelis had ignored Trump's wishes and warnings.  Not so.  Trump knew "everything," he said.  He assisted the Israelis with misdirection, approved their attack, and provided key American support.  He also revealed that giving the thumbs-up to move was also the culmination of his own promise.  Brilliant:


Late on Thursday, the president spoke with Fox's Bret Baier.  This tweet alone was packed with news and information.  It remains highly relevant, days into the operation:

President Trump was aware of the strikes beforehand. There were no surprises, but the US was NOT involved militarily and hopes Iran will return to the negotiating table. President Trump: “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see. There are several people in leadership that will not be coming back.” (A reference to some of the Iranian leaders who were killed tonight by Israel.) Pres. Trump has spoken to PM Netanyahu several times in recent days. The Trump Administration reached out to at least one key Middle Eastern ally to acknowledge that the strike was going to happen but that the US was not involved in the strikes and the goal is still to get Iran back to the negotiating table. The President is looking to see if there is retaliation, CENTCOM is on high alert, the US will defend itself and Israel if Iran retaliates. He said I hope they get back to the negotiating table. The US has replenished Iron Dome missiles in recent weeks, according to administration officials. US officials confirm a number of top Iranian leaders are dead after the strikes. Again, the US military was not involved in any way in these strikes, but clearly the administration knew about the Israeli plans in advance and was not surprised.

A few more details were relayed by CNN's Dana Bash:


No surprises, full coordination. Trump is still pushing renewed talks, which some people view as trolling, now that the regime is humiliating, defanged, and reeling.  There may be some trolling involved, but I suspect he's sending a message to whatever is left of the Iranian regime that they'll either have a chance at surviving by radically changing their position on their largely-destroyed nuclear program, or the regime will be totally eradicated.  The dynamics have changed irretrievably.  The last elements of the regime can either recognize their new reality, or the regime will be gone.  Indeed, it may already be too late for them.  Over the last few months, Trump played the 'good cop' with Iran.  They foolishly didn't take him seriously.  When he said the could never gain a nuclear arsenal, he really meant it.  When he gave them a deadline, he meant it.  When he said if they didn't embrace the peaceful track, they'd pay a painful price.  He meant it:  


He's also slapping down elements of the Right who are trying to portray these events as a betrayal of 'America First' foreign policy.  Well said:


The Trump administration and the Israelis played this masterfully.  Years of careful, risky preparation by the IDF and Mossad finally came to a head.  And when the time arrived, with Iran's nuclear progress growing unacceptably dangerous, America's president had the fortitude to flash them the green light.  This has been one of President Trump's finest hours.  He's backed up his words and warnings with credible action and consequences -- in a way that may be too late for the Iranian regime to learn from, but will certainly arrest the attention of other hostile leaders and governments around the world.  Israeli competence and brilliance, coupled with the strong leadership and strength of the President of the United States, ushered in this epochal moment.  It will be studied for years.  It is already the stuff of legend.  

Godspeed to the Israeli military as it completes this essential mission.  God bless the people of Israel as they absorb Iranian reprisals.  God bless the Iranian people, who despise the regime.  And God bless President Trump and his team for their central role in helping Israel bestow this gift upon the civilized world.  I'll leave you with this world exclusive interview between Netanyahu and Baier, as well as a reminder of how things could be far different if last year's election had gone the other way: