Tipsheet

Election in Poland Brings Good News for Conservatives

Conservatives are celebrating as Karol Nawrocki, the Nationalist opposition candidate, won the presidential election in Poland. So stunning was this narrow win that Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal candidate, had claimed victory based on the exit poll results, but was forced to concede on Monday morning, as Bonchie covered at our sister site of RedState. 

In covering the election, Reuters highlighted a contrast of the candidates when it comes to influence from the European Union, as well as similarities to President Donald Trump:

WARSAW, June 2 (Reuters) - Nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland's presidential election, results showed on Monday, delivering a big blow to the centrist government's efforts to cement Warsaw's pro-European orientation.

In a victory for European conservatives inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, election commission data showed. The outcome presages more political gridlock as he is likely to use his presidential veto to thwart Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal policy agenda.

Nawrocki's rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition (KO) candidate, had declared victory immediately after the publication of an exit poll late on Sunday that showed the result would be very close.

"I'm sorry that I didn't manage to convince the majority of citizens of my vision of Poland," Trzaskowski said on X. "I congratulate Karol Nawrocki on winning the presidential election."

Nawrocki, a conservative historian and amateur boxer who was backed by PiS, had presented the vote as a referendum on Tusk's 18-month-old government.

"The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won," PiS lawmaker Jacek Sasin wrote on X.

The election comes just days after international CPAC events took place in Hungary, and before that, in Poland, with Townhall attending the conference this year in Budapest. Although CPAC focused on the successes of Hungary in opposing the influence of the EU, which it has been able to do thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, there were also references made to Poland and the election there. 

The EU-US Forum, which was also in Budapest last week, enthusiastically celebrated Nawrocki's victory over X. 

Matt Mowers, a board member of the EU-US Forum and a former State Department official, also congratulated and tagged Nawrocki over X, sharing a picture of the Nawrocki posing with Trump. He spoke of the forum's presence in Budapest, noting that their conference "discussed how Europeans want more conservative leadership, and the Polish presidential election is further proof."

Bonchie's coverage also mentioned how this victory represents good news for Poland and a rift with the EU and its liberal ways [emphasis original]:

[Prime Minister Donald] Tusk and his Civic Coalition have sought to push Poland further under the thumb of the European Union, including making the country subject to Brussels' left-wing "Green" agenda. Abortion was also a major driver in the 2023 election, with younger women voting in large numbers, apparently more concerned about being able to terminate their pregnancies than the well-being of their nation. 

On immigration, Tusk had recently made a push to tighten up asylum rules in an attempt to appeal to right-wing voters. His Jekyll and Hyde approach with the European Union wasn't convincing, though. Poland's strict immigration policies and low crime rates have long been in sharp contrast to Western Europe, and pledging to protect that is something the new president-elect capitalized on. Nawrocki will now officially withdraw from the EU "pro-migration" pact, which has led to such chaos in other European nations.

....

One of the major factors of this result is that Nawrocki will have the power to veto any budget the Tusk-led Parliament sends to him. That could lead to paralysis and a snap election sooner rather than later. Nawrocki's win is just one step in the plan for the conservatives to regain power, and the red flags for Tusk are piling up. 

Practically, this represents a major blow to the European Union's increasing influence in Poland, and accusations that Nawrocki is "pro-Russia" and a "fascist" are already being made. In reality, he's wanted by the Russian Federation for his decommunization efforts, and while he is currently against Ukraine joining the EU, his precondition is acknowledgment of the genocide of Poles from 1943-1945.

Hungary's resistance to "pro-migrant" policies was also referenced at CPAC in Budapest last week, including how Hungary has been fined for not changing how it handles immigrants at its borders. The decision came from the European Court of Justice, as POLITICO reported last June

Reuters also referenced how this momentum for conservatives may even help a candidate in the Czech Republic. "The result could lend momentum to the Czech Republic's eurosceptic opposition leader Andrej Babis, a former prime minister who leads opinion polls before an October election. Babis offered 'warm congratulations' on X," the piece mentioned.