Tipsheet

Who Will Be Florida's Next Governor?

Jeff Charles
Jeff Charles  |  May 23, 2025 4:45 PM

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ last term as governor will soon come to an end, and people are already asking: Who will take his place?

There are several potential options, at least some of whom have already announced their intention to vie for the position. Much of the chatter has centered on Casey DeSantis, the governor’s wife, and Rep. Byron Donalds, who announced his intention to run in February.

But some reports have suggested that former Rep. Matt Gaetz is considering throwing his hat into the ring, which could shake things up a bit.

The thought process that is settling in is that Gaetz sees an opportunity if both Donalds and Casey DeSantis run. A three-way primary in what is now a Republican-leaning state can open up the opportunity for a dark horse candidate to win the GOP nomination with just roughly 30% of the vote.

“Matt is always thinking — I could see him seeing a potential multi-way race presenting him an opportunity to re-emerge for a run,” a veteran Florida Republican operative said.

The most recent poll shows Casey DeSantis in the lead with 29 percent support. However, Donalds trails her by only one percentage point, garnering 28 percent. Gaetz is in third place at ten percent.

Out of these three, Donalds is the only one who has announced that he is running for governor. He also already has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which could be a game-changer in this race. In fact, the poll showed that when respondents were informed of Trump’s endorsement, the lawmaker’s support rose to 44 percent while DeSantis’ fell to 25 percent.

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Still, it is early, so it’s not yet clear how much weight the president’s endorsement will carry — but we can be sure it will have a significant impact. Each candidate comes with strengths and weaknesses that might figure into the choice that Florida voters will eventually make.

As the Sunshine State’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis has name recognition. She has maintained an active public profile, often touting her husband’s policies and spearheading initiatives like the “Hope Florida” program, which aims to help Floridians transition off government assistance.

DeSantis also possesses a considerable level of political acumen. Her media and journalism background has made her an effective communicator, a skill that would be invaluable on the campaign trail.

It’s also worth noting that DeSantis is well-liked in the state. It also helps that her husband’s policies have been quite popular — even amid ongoing attacks from the media.

However, there could be some obstacles. The Hope Florida initiative is currently under investigation for alleged misuse of funds.

From the Tallahassee Democrat:

House lawmakers accused the Hope Florida Foundation, the fundraising arm of the program, of illegally funneling part of a $67 million Medicaid contractor settlement to a political committee controlled by the governor's then-chief of staff to help defeat a 2024 constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana.

The governor has maintained that the $10 million was an addition to a $57 million settlement, calling it "kind of like a cherry on top, where they agreed to make an additional contribution."

GOP state Rep. Alex Andrade, who has been leading the investigation, said the move “looks like criminal fraud by some of those involved.”

A smaller obstacle could be her inexperience; she has never held elected office before. But if she makes her case, this likely won’t matter.

As for Rep. Donalds, he has several elements working in his favor. For starters, he has Trump’s endorsement, which carries weight. Indeed, in some cases, the president’s support has influenced the outcome of various primary races in the past.

Also, his legislative experience means he has familiarity with state and federal matters. While he may not have the same level of name recognition as DeSantis, this could easily change over time. At the federal level, he is regarded as a rising star in the Republican Party.

On the other hand, his limited statewide recognition could hamper his progress. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll conducted in March showed that about 65 percent of GOP primary voters recognized his name. However, about 86 percent recognized Casey DeSantis. Still, Donalds could easily mitigate this by aggressively campaigning in the state and running ads to familiarize people with him.

The lawmaker’s past legal challenges could potentially become an issue if his opponents weaponize them. He had a felony theft charge when he was younger which was expunged. 

Lastly, Matt Gaetz has also been a star on the right. The former lawmaker has cultivated a loyal following among conservative voters — especially those aligned with the MAGA movement.

Additionally, Gaetz’s communication skills and media presence could make him a powerhouse. He excels at using social media to get his message out. Since he has served in the state and federal legislature, he has experience that he could leverage to swing the outcome in his favor.

But there is the obvious elephant in the room: The ethics investigation that accused him of engaging in sexual misconduct and other behavior that might turn off Republican voters. While his most ardent supporters might dismiss the investigation’s findings, the rest of the base might not. This issue will certainly be used against him if he decides to run.

This will be a closely-watched race — regardless of who the candidates are. As stated previously, Ron DeSantis’ policies are popular in Florida, meaning that Republicans have a favorable chance of holding onto the governor’s seat. The question is, which one will Florida’s voters choose?