The Republican Texas Senate primary is heating up, and Sen. John Cornyn has a good chance of losing in the primaries — especially if the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton has anything to say about it.
Paxton, who launched his campaign at the beginning of April, has been a vocal critic of Cornyn and is positioning himself as an outsider who will go to Washington to shake things up. A recent poll shows some devastating news for Cornyn’s campaign.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in a new poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership backed super PAC.
SLF is supporting Cornyn. Their poll has Cornyn trailing Paxton 56-40, according to two people briefed on the survey.
In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a run, Cornyn is down 10. Paxton pulled 44% to Cornyn’s 34%. Hunt got 19% in the three-way race.
The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is mulling another Senate run. Cornyn led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point.
Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans — that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election.
Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002. Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It’s not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.
The fact that Paxton didn't fare so well against Allred might be a sign that Paxton’s popularity doesn’t necessarily extend far outside of Republican voters.
The two candidates have been going back and forth on social media, with Paxton gloating about the poll’s results. Paxton recently slammed Cornyn for his flip-flopping on the Second Amendment. He spearheaded the effort to pass the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a significant piece of anti-gun legislation. Yet, now, he seemingly supports the National Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act.
Sen. Cornyn last week blasted Paxton for approving $7.1 million of taxpayer funds going to far-leftist groups. “Are you even at work in Austin running your office?” the senator asked.
This race will be noteworthy regardless of who wins. Paxton is representing the anti-establishment side of the GOP while Cornyn, who has served as senator since 2002, is a member of the old guard. Both candidates have a positive relationship with President Donald Trump, so it is difficult to see who he will endorse. Either way, this race could be one of several showing just how much influence the establishment still has.