Tipsheet
Premium

Trump's Numbers Improving in the Polls

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  May 16, 2025 4:00 PM

Much was made about President Donald Trump's poll numbers as he approached his first 100 days in office for his second term, which came on April 29. While polls released at that time showed Trump had room for improvement, there were hopeful signs as well, including his approval numbers on immigration and deportation efforts. Further, as Trump himself highlighted, many of these polls ought to be examined with a grain of salt. Above all, no matter how Trump is doing, Democrats perform far worse in the polls and have been in severe disarray. As we covered earlier this week, though, Trump has already been seeing his poll numbers improve, and it looks like that trend is continuing. 

On Wednesday afternoon, Decision Desk HQ revealed that Trump has seen a second consecutive week of improvement in his poll averages. Trump has seen improvements in both his approval and favorable ratings, at +1.4 and +0.6, respectively. There's also been a jump in how respondents believe the country is on the right track, of +8.3. 

As of Wednesday's post on X, Trump's numbers were overall at a 45.0-51.7 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. One of the polls included by Decision Desk HQ comes from Cygnal's National Voter Trends (NVT) survey.

As we covered earlier this week, that Cygnal poll showed potential concerns for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), especially as he may face a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) if he insists on running for reelection in 2028, rather than heed calls to retire.

The Cygnal poll shows Trump with a 47.2-51.0 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. He enjoys an 89 percent favorable rating from his fellow Republicans, and a 90 percent favorable rating from those who voted for him in 2024. The trend lines also show a significant increase in his favorable numbers, which the pollsters spoke to at length.

Recommended

Is This Why the Supreme Court Broke the Way It Did on the Alien Enemies Act Case? Matt Vespa
Portions of the Tapes Between Biden and Special Counsel Robert Hur Have Been Released. They’re Brutal. Matt Vespa

Broken down by demographic, Trump has notably seen an increase in his favorable rating of 4 percent in females from April to May, and only went down by 1 percent among unmarried females, a group not exactly fond of the president to begin with. He even saw a 4 percent increase in his favorable rating from Democrats. "Trump’s image (47 fav - 51 unfav) has ticked up a few points to his best showing since February. Trump’s improved standing is being driven by married women, who now have a net favorable opinion of him for the first time in his second term," the poll's Insights & Analysis section highlighted. 

This overall improvement is particularly impressive, as the media has had negative coverage of Trump in his second term in his first 100 days, to the tune of 92 percent. "Trump has had more negative media about him since he's been elected than during the campaign, and his numbers are improving. The media thinks they're hurting Trump by slandering him, but it actually gives him more power," Cygnal President Brent Buchanan highlighted in a statement for Townhall. 

Republicans in Congress also saw an increase in support from voters. This latest NVT has them at a 47.6-49.3 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. Democrats in Congress meanwhile are at a 44.0-52.7 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. 

Buchanan focused on the contrast to begin his statement about the poll's results. "Democrats are never going to be able to sell their positions or their approach to the American people in the same way as President Trump," he said. "When you look at this data, it’s clear Trump maintains the edge over Democrats on all the top issues. He demonstrates this almost daily to voters and while congressional Republicans have a slight edge as well, the clock is ticking to codify many of Trump’s major agenda items as summer approaches--they should pedal to the metal and keep going."

As referenced by Buchanan, even better for Republicans for the 2026 midterms is that they lead on all six issues where voters are asked which party they trust more. In order of best issues for Republicans, the party enjoys a lead of +23.5 on "Illegal immigration and border security," of +18 percent on "Cutting wasteful government spending," of +12.6 percent on "Crime and public safety," of +2.5 percent, of +2.2 percent on "Cost of living," and +2.1 percent on "Foreign affairs."

The Insights & Analysis section addressed this as well [emphasis original]:

  • Shifting back to party trust on issues, swing voters trust the GOP by double digits on every issue including +46 trust in the GOP on illegal immigration and border security and +36 trust of the GOP to handle cutting wasteful government spending. Hispanic voters trust the GOP to handle illegal immigration and border security by a +15 clip(51 GOP – 36 Dem).
    • With the economic swings of the last month, the Democratic Party fares best on jobs andthe economy (45% Dems) but still trail the GOP by two points on the issue.

In his statement about the poll's results, pollster John Rogers focused mostly on these issues. "Right now, voters trust Republicans more on the central issues like inflation and immigration, and the Democrat Party's brand is at a low point. It is clear that key voter groups feel like Congressional Democrats aren't speaking to their priorities. Forty-three percent of swing voters say inflation or government spending and waste should be the top priority for Congress, while only eight percent of swing voters think Congress should be focused on threats to democracy," he said, also speaking to the problems Democrats face. "Democrats aren’t connecting with the average voter. 'Fighting oligarchy' is an abstraction, arguing for open borders is a losing message across the board, and neither addresses inflation and the economy."

Like other polls, this one shows that voters support his deportation plans. As the poll asked, "Do you support or oppose deporting those illegally in the United States back to their country of origin?" Close to 64 percent, at 63.5 percent, support these efforts, while 30.8 percent oppose. Democrats, Hispanics, and those who voted for then Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are the only ones where a majority are opposed.

This poll, unlike other problematic ones, such as from The New York Times, offers a more fair description of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an illegal immigrant from El Salvador who has been dubbed "Maryland man" by Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media. When offered various statements on Abrego Garcia, a plurality, at 45.6 percent, said they most closely agree with the statement that "Authorities say Abrego Garcia entered the United States illegally, is a member of the gang MS-13, and has had a restraining order sought by his wife following accusations of domestic abuse."

This Cygnal poll also addressed the right track/wrong track question. In fact, the amount of voters who say the country is going in the right direction, 44.9 percent, is the highest since this question was asked starting in June 2021. This was one of Rogers' top takeaways about the poll results. 

As the Insights & Analysis also mentioned [emphasis original]:

  • Voter optimism on the direction of the country (45% right direction) has risen to the highest level since the beginning of the Cygnal NVT Survey.
  • Last summer (July), 71% said the country was on the wrong track and only 24% felt theU.S. was headed in the right direction. May’s numbers are a remarkable net 40% swing upward in optimism since last summer.

Buchanan also focused on this part of the poll for his daily trends on Thursday. As he highlighted about "Voter Optimism" when it comes to those who feel the country is moving in the right direction, "since we began these NVT surveys in June 2021, optimism about the direction of the country is at its highest level (45%)--a net 40 percent swing--which is a sharp contrast to last summer when 71 percent said the country was on the wrong track."

What could help Trump's numbers, especially on inflation and the economy, have to do with how trade deals and tariffs go. As the Trump administration has been announcing trade negotiations as of late, including with China, 57.9 percent of voters say they support renegotiating trade deals. Unlike his successor/predecessor, former President Joe Biden, Trump has been tough on China. A plurality of voters, at 47.7 percent, say they support tougher tariffs on China, with the poll specifically asking, "Do you support or oppose increasing tariffs on China to force better trading terms for the United States and its citizens?"