With the release of another poll, there still looks to be bad news for Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who is up for reelection next year. Hochul had a rather unimpressive win in 2022 against Republican Lee Zeldin, a former congressman who now serves as the EPA Administrator under the second Trump administration, and she could be in even more trouble for 2026. As we've been covering since late last year, the governor's poll numbers are not where she or the Democratic Party – already in disarray – needs them to be.
Siena College and Morning Consult have been putting out polls on Hochul, as has been our main focus. There's also a GrayHouse poll sparking chatter, which was conducted April 22-24 to show that Hochul's concerning poll numbers aren't just limited to those two pollsters.
The poll actually gained headlines around the time of its release late last month, as it shows a race between Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) could be rather close. Again, Zeldin came rather close to winning. Perhaps Stefanik can seal the deal for next November. Forty percent of Republican primary voters say they would choose Stefanik, and 44 percent are undecided, with other candidates earning support in the single digits. This is particularly impressive for Stefanik, given that she has yet to officially declare, though she is considering it. In contrast, a majority of Hochul's fellow Democrats say they're undecided, at 55 percent. Just 24 percent would choose the incumbent governor if the primary were held today.
Further, 61 percent of respondents say that it's "Time for someone new" if the election were held today, including a plurality of Democratic respondents, at 34 percent. Polls from Siena College also show New York voters are not too keen on the idea of Hochul serving another term. Overall, just 9 percent of respondents and 16 percent of her fellow Democrats say they would "Definitely re-elect Kathy Hochul." Eighteen percent of overall respondents and 31 percent of Democrats say they "probably" would.
The poll is once more earning headlines over how Hochul matches up against President Donald Trump, who is himself also from New York, though he moved to Florida in time for the 2024 election. While Hochul has a 36 percent approval rating compared to her 55 percent disapproval rating, Trump has a 43 percent approval rating, while 56 percent disapprove.
As the Daily Mail reported recently about the poll:
'Kathy Hochul's numbers have imploded,' a New York Republican political operative told the Daily Mail, pointing to the devastating approval numbers for her in a state that is primarily comprised of Democrats.
Even President Trump has a higher approval rating than Hochul in the heavily Democratic state - with 43 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving.
...
Rampant crime, out-of-control immigration, and corruption has seen support swinging towards the Republicans as Empire State residents grow frustrated with the lack of accountability after decades of single party political leadership.
The state's Democratic leadership has faced a popularity slide on the back of radical left wing policies, such as draconian Covid restrictions and soft-on-crime policing.
Republicans have been reaping the benefits of the realignment.
...
Republican candidate for governor Rep. Lee Zeldin came within 6 points of defeating Hochul as the final tally was 47 percent to 53 percent.
Republicans are anticipating a rematch with Hochul as her approval ratings are weaker than ever.
'The rightward shift of New York, in particular New York City, has been happening since 2006,' GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall told the Daily Mail.
Wall indicated that Trump's gains in New York City could even help a potential future Republican candidate.
But the newfound excitement from Republicans in the state is bigger than just Donald Trump.
'There's this energy and this desire for something counter to the one party rule in New York that is separate from the Trump effect,' Wall said.
The poll was conducted April 22-24 with 826 registered New York voters, including 600 in the general election sample, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
New York is still relevant to Trump even as someone who came to claim residence in Florida. While a Republican candidate for president hasn't won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, Trump still won 43.3 percent of the vote there last November. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris only won the state in 2024 with 55.9 percent of the vote. That 12.6 percent margin is even more paltry considering that the Biden-Harris ticket won the state in 2020 with 60.9 percent of the vote to the Trump-Pence ticket's 37.8 percent.
As we covered not long after the election, New York is one of many states where, while Trump did not pull off a victory, he certainly came close, especially compared to recent elections. New York is also representative of how the entire country, including Washington state, saw a shift to the right in 2024.
Stefanik and Republicans can't afford to take anything for granted in 2026, especially with state Democrats using the courts to bend to their whim, like with redistricting, but there can still be hope, for next year and perhaps even beyond. Hochul and the Democratic Party definitely have cause for concern.