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One Week Away: Crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court Election With National Implications

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  March 25, 2025 10:05 AM

Early voting is underway in Wisconsin's important state Supreme Court race, with Election Day just one week away.  On April 1, Badger State voters will decide whether the court's current 4-3 left-leaning majority -- secured by so-called progressives two years ago -- moves substantially further Left, or flips back to conservative-controlled. There is so much riding on the outcome for the people of Wisconsin, as I've discussed previously, including in a substantive discussion with former Gov. Scott Walker.  But national conservatives should also pay attention to the results of the contest, which has already become the most expensive of its kind, ever.  Supporters of the leftist candidate have made it explicitly clear that one of their political goals in this race is to redraw the state's Congressional lines, just as the current 4-3 liberal majority recent eliminated and reestablished the state's legislative districts.  They openly intend to try to swing two US House seats to the Democrats, which would be a very big deal, as anyone who's been keeping even a casual eye on national politics knows.  

The conservative judge in this battle is a mainstream, no-nonsense former statewide Attorney General.  He's a strong recruit.  His 'progressive' opponent, who would yank the court's ideology leftward, is notoriously soft-on-crime (including for sexual predators who target children) and allied with extreme culture warriors:

Another reason why this election is being closely watched is that it represents a test of each political coalition's enthusiasm and turnout game.  Wisconsin is about as polarized and evenly divided as a state can be.  Trump carried the state extremely narrowly twice, with Biden winning it very narrowly in 2020.  It's one of a tiny cluster of states that have US Senators from each major party, each of whom barely prevailed in their most recent elections.  The governor is a Democrat, the legislature is red.  The Supreme Court race is about persuasion, to an extent, but it's really about which team's voters do a better job of showing up and participating.  We've written on multiple occasions about how Democrats and their base have turned into the 'high propensity' party, an advantage in elections precisely like this one.  Republicans have become the 'low propensity' party, which can produce positive results in the biggest-turnout events, but is a real problem in lower-profile races.  If that pattern continues to hold, leftist Susan Crawford should be considered the favorite heading into next Tuesday. 

But if right-leaners and Trump supporters vote in sufficient numbers, the new conventional wisdom could be stood on its head, thus sending a shockwave of panic throughout the national Left.  This is the type of election they are built to win, and expect to win.  Quite frankly, they'll do so if complacent conservatives stay home.  Trump himself just weighed in on this fight.  Will his modestly-to-marginally-involved voters take notice and act accordingly?


Turnout, turnout, turnout:

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Recent polling suggests the race is very tight, which is on-brand for Wisconsin.  But many voters aren't even aware that it's happening.  The Left is fired up across the country, angry about Trump's win and administration.  Thousands are turning out to see Bernie Sanders and AOC.  People are even spending their precious time picketing car dealerships, for crying out loud.  These sorts of partisans will crawl across broken glass to vote in an election and send a message about a backlash.  Can the Right match that energy?  We'll see soon enough, but pro-Schimel forces are working hard:


I'll leave you with my pitch to Badgerland voters to participate in this vital election, either through convenient early voting, or casting ballots one week from today.  It's crunch time, and much is on the line: