Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who managed to narrowly pull off in a win against former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022, has had a tough time ever since keeping her approval ratings up. It may even cost her and her party a win in 2026, especially if Republicans put up another formidable candidate. Hochul's recent poll numbers from late last year and at the start of this year have been particularly worrisome. She still has the incumbency advantage when it comes to winning a primary and potentially even the election, but what does it mean if New York Democrats are stuck with her once more on the ballot?
On Monday, Siena College released their latest poll on Hochul. Her approval/disapproval rating is at 46-48 percent among registered voters, while her favorable/unfavorable rating is even worse, at 40-50 percent. Among Democrats, her approval rating is 67-29 percent and her favorable rating is at 59-34 percent. In late January, she was looking at an overall 44-48 percent approval/disapproval rating, and a 39-47 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.
This most recent poll also tellingly looked to Hochul's prospects for 2026. A plurality of Democratic voters, at 46 percent, say they would vote for her in the primary. Twenty-eight percent say they don't know or refused. Other potential names include Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado, whom Hochul appointed in 2022 and has since announced he won't run for that role, and Rep. Ritchie Torres of the 15th Congressional District. They enjoy 11 and 10 percent support, respectively.
A press release accompanying the poll results highlights Delgado and Torres not being very well known in comparison to Hochul:
“While Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings remain negative, among Democrats her favorability and job approval ratings are decidedly positive. Factor that in with two largely unknown potential opponents, even among Democrats – Delgado and Torres – and it is easy to see why Hochul holds a commanding early lead among registered Democrats in a potential June 2026 gubernatorial primary,” [Siena College pollster Steven] Greenberg said.
Delgado’s overall favorability rating is 19-16%, with 65% not knowing or having an opinion about him. Among Democrats, Delgado’s favorability rating is 26-10-64%. Torres’ favorability rating with all voters is 18-15-67%,and with Democrats, 27-14-59%. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler has a 18-19-63% favorability rating among all voters and a 18-14-68% rating among Republicans. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has a 12-14-74%favorability rating among all voters and a 15-16-69% rating with Republicans.
As not terrible as Hochul's numbers among fellow Democrats may be, which Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg also highlighted throughout the press release, further findings to do with the 2026 gubernatorial race get trickier for her from there.
When asked if they would vote for Hochul or "someone else" in 2026, just 34 percent say the current governor, while 56 percent say they "prefer someone else." Democrats have appeared to come home, in that 51-40 percent said they would vote for Hochul over "somewhere else." This slight majority is up from the plurality of Democratic voters who said so in previous months. Just 12 percent of Republicans and 22 percent of Independents would go for Hochul, though.
The poll also shows that Hochul is doing well with New Yorkers on some issues, but not others. Of the seven issues that voters are asked about, Hochul is above water in three of them, including the vaguely phrased issue of "Protecting the Constitutional rights of all New Yorkers," "Ensuring New Yorkers have access to quality affordable healthcare," and "Making New York a safer place to live and work," although that last issue involves a small plurality of support, at 48 percent.
Hochul's worst issue of the seven is "Making New York a more affordable place to live and work," as voters disapprove by 52-41 percent. Voters also disapprove of her "Handling the strike by correctional officers at New York State prisons" by 42-33 percent, of her "Addressing the corruption indictment against New York City Mayor Eric Adams," which involved her bringing in Reverend Al Sharpton for assistance to potentially relieve the mayor, by 44-40 percent, and of her "Working with the Trump administration to benefit New York" by 46-38 percent.
Another major news topic for New Yorkers, and one more immediate than the 2026 gubernatorial race, includes congestion pricing. That December poll also revealed the program was an unpopular one. The second Trump administration quickly informed Hochul that congestion pricing was to come to an end, with a March 21 deadline approaching. By 40-33 percent, respondents overall agree with Trump about how the program should be eliminated. A plurality of NYC voters want it to remain, 42-35 percent.
Hochul has remained particularly hellbent on the issue, with other accounts affiliated with the Empire State putting out particularly immature posts over social media. The governor's stubbornness is not exactly surprising, as she did say she'll lead the "resistance" against the president.
This latest poll was conducted March 2-6, 2025, with 806 registered New York voters. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Sienna College isn't the only pollster showing troubling signs for Hochul come her reelection prospects. Morning Consult's poll from January showed that Hochul is one of the most unpopular governors running for reelection in 2026, as we covered at the time. Torres, who has since shared he's thinking about running for governor, shared the poll's headline to call out the governor for her failures.
Kathy Hochul is the new Joe Biden.
— Ritchie Torres (@RitchieTorres) January 16, 2025
If Hochul is at the top of the ticket in 2026, we as Democrats are in grave danger of not only losing the governorship to a Republican for the first time in more than 20 years but also losing multiple Congressional seats. Hochul is a… pic.twitter.com/WirNiakr6C
When it comes to Torres referring to Hochul as "the new Joe Biden," it's certainly possible that she could tank her party's chances if she ends up being the nominees, including for House races. Although Zeldin lost the election, he still won several counties, with Republicans riding his coattails for congressional races, and the party had him to thank for winning back the House in the 2022 elections, as Guy covered at the time.
That being said, when Democrats forced President Joe Biden out last July, he was replaced by then Vice President Kamala Harris, who still lost, and badly. Democrats also lost control of the Senate and failed to gain back control of the House. New York is a blue state, especially when it comes to people fleeing this and other blue states for greener pastures. It remains to be seen if a Republican nominee has a chance to be the first GOP governor since the Empire State elected George Pataki in 1994.