Tipsheet

Dems Just Suffered Major Blow in Michigan With Peters Out and Rogers Likely Running

Senate Democrats just got the rug ripped from under them ahead of the 2026 elections and in a state where much heartache was inflicted in the last presidential election. Michigan was a piece of the proverbial Democratic Blue Wall that Trump smashed in 2024. With the MAGA wave crashing hard into the country, which has led to the Democratic Party seeing its worst favorability numbers among voters in years, certainly since the start of Quinnipiac’s tracking, Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) has opted to run away like a scared wombat. He also saw the writing on the wall. 

In 2014, he won comfortably over Republican Terri Lynn Land 54/41 but barely skated by in his 2020 re-election 49/48. Given how close this year’s Senate race was between Elissa Slotkin and Mike Rogers, I think Peters got the message. Slotkin limped over the finish line, with 48.6 percent of the vote to Rogers’ 48.3. The Democrats’ penchant to denigrate and push away working voters is likely to continue, as the party is teetering on civil war regarding how to retool its brand. With Peters exiting public life, Mr. Rogers is seriously mulling another run (via The Detroit News): 

Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers signaled Thursday that he's likely to mount a second campaign for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, following his narrow loss in November to Democrat Elissa Slotkin. 

Rogers of White Lake Township posted on the social media site X that he's "strongly considering" another Senate bid, noting that he had the backing of President Donald Trump last cycle and won "millions" of votes. 

"Since receiving more votes than any other Republican candidate that has ever run for Senate in Michigan, the tremendous outpouring of support and encouragement I've received since November proves that our mission to send a real fighter to the US Senate has just begun," Rogers wrote. 

"That's why Krisi and I are strongly considering joining the fight once again ― to be the ally that President Trump needs and the leader that Michigan deserves. Good news is coming soon." 

Local leaders seem to be energized by a Rogers return, too.  

“I was proud to run on the ticket with Mike Rogers in Macomb County in 2024, and he proved to the people in my community that he had the strength to represent Michigan in the United States Senate,” said Macomb County Prosecutor Peter J. Lucido. “Like me, Mike has always been about law and order which is exactly what we need in Washington. There is no doubt in my mind that Mike Rogers would be the strongest candidate for Michigan Republicans.”

“I’m excited to see Mike Rogers is considering running for the Senate seat being vacated by Peters,” said Former Michigan Farm Bureau President Carl Bednarski.  “I’m impressed with him in knowing and learning the issues effecting the agricultural community.” 

Though everything is fluid, Tudor Dixon is reportedly interested in this seat. But Dixon, the 2022 Republican candidate for governor, also expressed that she might make another run for governor's mansion. Other names, like Kevin Rinke, Tony Dungy, Rep. John James, and Bill Huizenga, could be potential candidates, but that’s a rumor mill now. All I’ll say regarding this hypothetical crop is that Mr. Dungy is insane to give up a nice job in the sports commenting world to get into the thick of politics.  

The race is critical for both sides: A Republican win will shore up the bulwark of their majority in the upper chamber, whereas Democrats have a chance to use the state as an experimental lab for testing new messages, though that’s continent on a crowded field which is likely since Rep. Debbie Dingell and term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer have both declined to run (via Politico):

“If Whitmer had run, she would’ve frozen the field. Now, we’ve got an open one. You’ve got [Pete] Buttigieg, [state Sen. Mallory] McMorrow, and I’m sure there will be surprises,” said Democratic Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit. 

[…] 

Democrats have a massive bench of candidates from across the ideological spectrum, including: McMorrow, seen within the party as a rising star and effective communicator; Rep. Haley Stevens; purple-district Reps. Hillary Scholten and Kristen McDonald Rivet; Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel; Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist; and Buttigieg, the former Transportation secretary and recent Michigan transplant. 

A crowded primary for the seat would allow Democrats to test out different messages and lines of attack against Trump as they forge a path forward after a brutal election defeat. Trump swept through the Rust Belt and picked up the Sun Belt states that former President Joe Biden flipped in 2020. 

It’s still early, but with Peters out of the way, a clutch GOP win in next year’s midterms seems within reach. Who thought Michigan would be a state where the GOP could play? You have to love the overhaul Trump has brought to the party.