Tipsheet

The NYT Highlighted Something in the Polling That We Should Definitely Follow on Tuesday

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  November 04, 2024 6:50 AM

We’ve been told it’s going to be a close race. If the polling is off as it was in 2020 regarding gauging the Trump vote, the former president could be in for a blowout win against Kamala Harris. Yet, the same polling error could lead to a solid win for the Democrats. We don’t know anything, except the latest Iowa poll is crap. At this point, it’s all about getting to the polls. Yet, it’s noteworthy that The New York Times decided to leave this piece of agita in their analysis. It’s not good for Democrats, and a polling anomaly that everyone should follow when the polls close on Tuesday night: there’s a response bias in the surveys that favors Democrats (via NYT): 

Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters. 

It’s hard to measure nonresponse bias — after all, we couldn’t reach these demographically similar voters — but one measure I track from time to time is the proportion of Democrats or Republicans who respond to a survey, after considering other factors. 

Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again. 

We do a lot to account for this, but in the end there are no guarantees.

We could veer into that territory again, but it doesn’t matter. All that matters right now is that everyone votes. But if this turns out to be true, Kamala is cooked. Trump is heading into Election Day in the best polling position he’s ever been, but now the wait begins. 

Will we choose freedom or slavery on Election Day?