As Debate Approaches, Poll Has a Warning for Harris

On Tuesday morning, Cygnal released its latest national poll, and it's one where Harris only has a slight edge over Trump. The poll's takeaways emphasize that she and Trump are "statistically tied." 

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris leads Trump 49-47 percent among likely general election voters, while she leads 46-44 percent on the full ballot.

The poll's "Insights & Analysis" section also notes that the candidates "are statistically tied" and that the "general election environment remains tight... despite the glowing mainstream media coverage and advertising advantage for Harris..." Republicans also have an R+1 advantage on the generic congressional ballot.

Here's why Harris does look to have the edge, as the poll explains (original emphasis):

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• Since Joe Biden dropped out and was replaced by Kamala Harris, we have seen Democrats erase the Republican turnout gap. And among new voters and those with a lower history of voting in elections, lower-propensity Democrats are now much more likely to vote than lower-propensity Republicans. Because of this, we have adjusted our electorate slightly to the left so that the recalled ballot matches closer to the 2020 presidential election results. We also increased the share in our poll of those that did not vote in the 2020 general election along with expecting more younger voters.

...

• Harris’ slightly increased margins are driven mostly by college-educated men and Independents moving further in her direction since last month.

...

• Harris continues to be viewed more positively than Trump, and there was little change in either of their images from last month. 
  • Notably, under the hood, Harris’ image among Independents net shifted 12 points, going from a -6 net favorability to +6.

In last month's poll, as we also covered at the time, 47 percent of voters said they have a favorable view of Harris, while 50.3 percent have an unfavorable view. Similarly, 45.8 percent of voters said they have a favorable view of Trump, while 51.7 percent have an unfavorable view. 

This more recent poll shows Harris with a 47.6 percent favorable view, while 50.2 percent have an unfavorable view. This includes a favorable view from 51 percent of Independents. Trump's favorable view went slightly down, as 45.5 percent of voters say they have a favorable view, while 52.8 percent have an unfavorable view. 

The poll also shows bad news for Harris as well, though, especially as she tries to portray herself as a change candidate, despite being part of the Biden-Harris administration as the sitting vice president. A majority of voters, at 56.5 percent, have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden. 

That's where bad news ahead of the debate especially comes in. 

As one of the poll's questions asked, "to what extent do you believe Kamala Harris is responsible for the policies of the Biden-Harris Administration?" A whopping 69.1 percent say that Harris is at least "somewhat responsible," with a plurality, at 31 percent, saying she falls into that category. Close to 21 percent say she is "fully responsible," while 17.2 percent say she is "mostly responsible." Just 7.9 percent say she is "not at all responsible."

The poll also asked voters "which political party’s policies do you blame the most for the rising cost inflation?" By double digits, more voters say they blame the Democratic Party's policies more than the Republican Party's policies, at 46.3 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively. Almost as many voters were willing to say they blame "both parties equally," at 22.1 percent, as they were to say they blame the Republican Party.

Other than Democratic voters, black voters, and those who voted for Biden in 2020, a plurality or majority of every other demographic--and there's over two dozen of them included in this poll--say the Democratic Party's policies are more to blame. This even includes 36 percent of unmarried women, a reliably Democratic voting bloc, who says the Democratic Party's policies are more to blame, compared to the 26 percent of them who say the Republican Party's policies are more to blame.  

Even more damning in this area is that voters consider "inflation and economy" to be their top issue, and it's not even close, with 35.4 percent saying so. A plurality of every demographic says it's their top issue. The next highest issue is "illegal immigration," with 17.4 percent saying so.

This has risen in issue importance, as Cygnal President Brent Buchanan noted as part of his takeaways:

Digging deeper into why inflation and the economy (35%) has grown as the top concern, most voters say the impact is felt mostly on groceries/food, utilities, transportation, and discretionary spending. Voters saying the cost of groceries/food is a 1 - 4 of 5 impact on them lean heavily Harris while 5 of 5 impact voters are 2:1 Trump. Illegal immigration (17%) and “threats to democracy” (12%), both of which have dropped in priority since last month, come in at a distant second and third place respectively.

Meanwhile, Harris has been claiming she'll help lower the rising costs, despite how she's been vice president for over three and a half years now. 

Buchanan addressed this in a statement about the poll. "Ahead of tonight’s debate, it’s important to point out nearly half of voters (46%) blame the Democratic Party’s policies for the rising costs of inflation which isn’t great for Harris considering over two-thirds of voters hold her at least somewhat responsible for the Biden-Harris administration’s policies," he said. "Harris may have favorable mainstream media coverage and advertising advantages, but this race remains a statistical tie, and opinions formed of her are still soft and could easily swing. She has the most at stake in this debate and the most to prove to swing voters who are feeling the inflationary impact most."

Trump and Harris are pretty much even when it comes to "which candidate’s policies do you believe are better for you and your life?" Harris enjoys an edge, with 46.7 percent saying so about her policies, while 46.1 percent say so about Trump. 

Another opportunity for Trump in this debate is that while 69.6 percent of voters acknowledge that Harris is liberal, including 46 percent who say she is "very liberal," 16.8 percent still somehow believe that she is a "moderate."

The poll was conducted September 3-5 with 1,510 likely general election voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points. 

Buchanan also spoke with Newsmax before the debate about his poll, in which he pointed out that "debates are incredibly risky," with "very little upside and almost essentially only downside." He spoke to there being much at stake for Harris, especially as she has to explain all of the flip-flopping that she has done since she ran for president for the 2020 cycle, including but certainly not limited to when it comes to banning plastic straws. 

"Debates are incredibly risky. They have very little upside and almost essentially only downside. For the most part, the best thing you can hope for is walking out the same that you walked in." @brentbuc on @NEWSMAX pre-debate pic.twitter.com/soEeih8qr4

— Cygnal Polling & Analytics (@cygnal) September 10, 2024

Townhall will be doing a live blog, and we also have a Bingo card put together by Mia, so be sure to follow along.