Look, I’m going to chuckle a bit here because it’s not like the Senate was ever really in danger of flipping. Sorry, Chuck, it was a long shot back then, and now, with these folks getting involved, it’s probably done for, unless a series of unforeseen disasters happen. We have independent candidates running in deep-red states, and Democrats are not happy about it. I get it—we’ve had our fair share of third-party spoilers. The problem is that some of these candidates have a better shot at winning because the Democratic Party brand is garbage (via Politico):
Following the 2024 momentum of Nebraska independent Dan Osborn — who is running again this year — liberal candidates in Montana, Idaho and South Dakota are mounting Senate bids as independents. But they are quickly running into a problem: Unlike in Nebraska, local Democrats aren’t interested in stepping aside.
That puts both the Democratic Party and these independents in a bit of a bind — and could imperil their chances of breaking up GOP control of the Senate. Democrats running candidates in red states see no reason to endorse candidates who have not pledged to support them in Congress, even though the liberal-minded independents may have a stronger path to victory in red areas where the Democratic Party brand is toxic.
Montana is the most likely place where these tensions could boost the GOP. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar launched his independent bid on Wednesday, the final day candidates could get on the ballot in the state. That was the same day Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) announced his retirement, in an explicit effort to keep Democrats from fielding a strong candidate of their own.
But while Democrats privately aren’t thrilled with their candidate options in a state where they’ve had a long track record of success in spite of its rightward national lean, the state Democratic Party immediately was quick to reaffirm its commitment to only backing party members, “full stop.” The party has four candidates running in its June 2 primary.
[…]
In an interview, Bodnar, whose campaign is being run by former staffers of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), stayed strictly on message and would not address a ticket-splitting scenario.
“We are launching a campaign that’s gonna represent all Montanans,” he said. “You know, we’re working to build a coalition, a coalition of independents, of Republicans, of Democrats, of Montanans, who frankly are fed up with battling over red versus blue, and the partisan name calling, and insiders that are working to distract us and divide us.”
[…]
In South Dakota, independent Brian Bengs and the state Democratic Party have been sparring. Bengs — who ran as a Democrat in 2022 (but was an independent before and after that race) — is blunt about the dangers of splitting votes.
“The field needs to be cleared,” he said. “I recognize that.”
But Democrats have no plans to pave the way for him, even as Bengs raised more than five times his Democratic opponent and more than any non-Republican candidate in the state in 16 years.
“We have no interest in supporting the independent candidate running,” South Dakota Democratic Party Vice Chair Jessica Meyers said in an interview.
You know, that’s some wishful thinking: not addressing the elephant in the room about the Indies being spoilers—you’re on the ballot, guys. Naturally, you have to address it and make your case for why you should win. So, that’s a Democrat problem. But some could argue that this circus remains part of this party’s ongoing drama of resisting change, or perhaps being incapable of doing so, because their base is so extreme.
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