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Tipsheet

NYT Confirmed Two Things With Their Piece About the Dems' Political 'Death Cycle'

AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

I get it, Democrats. You think history is on your side regarding the upcoming midterms. Sherrod Brown is running for Senate again in Ohio. You have Roy Cooper running for Senate in North Carolina—you think you can flip both chambers and stop the Trump agenda in 2026. Not with these figures. You’re not riding on a wave here, and if you have a surfboard for this phantom political swell that’s coming, it’s being held together with spit and duct tape.  

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You can’t win elections if everyone thinks your party sucks. Democrats haven’t fixed their popularity issues. Second, you’re bleeding out of your eyes, ears, and wherever, and Shane Goldmacher had another damning piece about how this party is truly falling apart (via NYT) [emphasis mine]: 

Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.

 That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. 

The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm. 

Few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it — whether they register on a clipboard in a supermarket parking lot, at the Department of Motor Vehicles or in the comfort of their own home. 

And fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats. 

In fact, for the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year. 

[…] 

There are still more Democrats registered nationwide than Republicans, partly because of big blue states like California allow people to register by party, while red states like Texas do not. But the trajectory is troublesome for Democrats, and there are growing tensions over what to do about it.

[…] 

“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this,” said Michael Pruser, who tracks voter registration closely as the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, an election-analysis site. “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.” 

The shifts also previewed Democratic weaknesses in 2024. The party saw some of its steepest declines in registration among men and younger voters, the Times analysis found — two constituencies that swung sharply toward Mr. Trump. 

All four presidential battleground states covered by the Times analysis — Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — showed significant Democratic erosion. 

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The article confirmed two things: Donald Trump has shattered this party into a million pieces. There’s no message, leader, agenda, or appeal anymore. It’s been wiped out in a political nuclear holocaust, with its remnants trying not to freeze to death post-fallout.  

Second, the Democrats are now truly a bi-coastal, regional party, something that Victor Davis Hanson mentioned not so long ago. The only reason why the national voter advantage remains with Democrats is that deep blue states, like California, make it so. That’s it. You need more than the Golden State to win elections, and Republicans have gladly skated into the White House while losing the Left Coast in the Electoral College. Once the new census rolls around, these blue bastions will lose electoral votes to the point where it’s projected that the GOP won’t even need the blue wall states anymore.  

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The Democrats are a party that’s sinking millions into why male voters, specifically white men, hate them so much. Goldmacher has written extensively about the ongoing heartburn that’s killing Democrats, from people seeing a window to remake the party post-Kamala closing to the paralysis by analysis exhibited by party members on what to do. It’s the Trump factor: they don’t want to accept what’s clear as day because that would mean admitting the president was right about them. It’s not a one-off thing anymore, kids—Trump has beaten you twice, handily. The Republicans won the popular vote, not because of some white voter surge, but because they got union workers, young people, Hispanic males, and black men to vote Republican. We took the Obama coalition away from Democrats—it’s ours now.  

The Democratic playbook on winning elections has been nuked from orbit by Trump and the GOP, and the Left doesn’t know what to do. Some have gone on MSNBC to suggest that those who fight, like AOC, Zohran Mamdani, and Chris Murphy, are what breaks through with voters. What? The party was already bleeding support, its approvals were still trash, and you just named three Democrats from states whose politics are two or three steps to the left of Lenin.  

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Going woke can make you broke, and it also pushed hordes of non-white working-class voters into the GOP fold. It’s not appealing. It’s not inclusive.  

And I hope Democrats triple down on all their bad ideas.

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